Trump claims that US-Iran negotiations are "progressing smoothly." What's the next act in this drama?

（Source: Shibao New Journey）

On March 29, local time, Trump once again came out to shoot his mouth off, saying that the United States and Iran, through Pakistan as an intermediary, had made “smooth progress” in their indirect negotiations. He added that the U.S. military still has around 3,000 targets left to strike, and that there are several thousand more to be hit, so an agreement could be reached very soon.

A few weeks ago, as soon as Trump dared to say that the negotiations were making progress, New York crude oil prices would immediately plunge by $10 or even more, and the market would believe him word for word. But what about this time? Oil prices only fell by less than $2, almost as if nothing had moved. The gap is obvious at a glance. In plain terms, the market has completely stopped believing Trump’s nonsense; no matter how he blows it up, nobody is taking it seriously.

This is the typical “the boy who cried wolf” effect: the more Trump keeps calling wolf, the fewer people believe him. But he’s even worse off than the shepherd boy in the fable—the shepherd boy cried wolf, the villagers couldn’t see the wolf, and could only listen to him. Now, though, the whole world can see the truth. Iran hasn’t budged at all. While it was being reported as negotiating, it was still launching counterattacks. On March 28, it even carried out a precise strike on U.S. forces’ staging area, causing heavy casualties among U.S. troops.

Even more embarrassing is that Trump still insisted, saying Iran had agreed to most of the contents of his 15-point ceasefire plan, and even claimed Iran would send 20 oil tankers to prove its sincerity—sailing tomorrow. But Iran’s side exposed the lie on the spot, saying it was all his political performance and that none of it was true. Spreading fake news, they said, was meant to manipulate the oil market and help the U.S. and its ally escape the mire.

The market’s refusal to accept this mainly comes from seeing through Trump’s playbook. In the past, he always relied on fabricating “good news” to cool down the market and ease domestic pressure. The more times he did it, the more even quantitative trading institutions and merchants heavily holding crude oil could figure out his nature. They knew not a word he said was reliable, so naturally they wouldn’t be fooled again.

More importantly, Trump himself doesn’t have any confidence. He said, “An agreement could be reached very soon.” A U.S. president—after a war that had lasted this long—wouldn’t use “may” instead of “will” unless he had uncertainty. That shows that he isn’t sure himself. He’s just leaving himself an escape route, speaking toughly about smooth progress while having no confidence in his heart.

Trump’s situation right now is one where it’s hard to get off the tiger. His bluster has failed, the market won’t buy it, and domestic anti-war sentiment is rising too. The latest poll shows that 61% of Americans oppose going to war with Iran, while only 7% support a ground offensive. Cornered by fate, he may very well lose his temper—pushing the Pentagon to accelerate military operations, and even taking a risk to have the Marine Corps seize the island.

The island he has set his sights on is Khark Island, Iran’s largest oil export hub. Ninety percent of Iran’s crude oil is exported from there—arguably the lifeline of Iran’s oil. Trump even said that the U.S. military could easily take the island, and that he wants to imitate the Venezuela model to seize Iran’s oil. But he forgot that the U.S. military’s morale is at an all-time low right now. A month into the war, 303 soldiers have already been injured, and there are even people applying for conscientious objection to refusing military service.

Once the U.S. Marines forcibly land on the island, large-scale casualties are inevitable. Previously, the U.S. military only suffered scattered equipment losses, so ordinary Americans didn’t feel it. But if several thousand soldiers die, domestic anti-war sentiment would fully erupt. His approval rating would plunge, and it could even trigger domestic unrest. Besides, Iran has long been a nation where everyone serves in the military, and it has clear advantages for fighting on home soil. For the U.S. military to achieve a quick victory is nothing but a pipe dream.

In the end, Trump is trapped in an impossible triangle: he can’t control the market with words; increasing military action will lead to even greater casualties; greater casualties will further intensify domestic anti-war pressure. The “the boy who cried wolf” effect tightens every link. His most dangerous moment is not at the start of the war, but now—when no one believes him for whatever he says and there’s no way out, making it possible that he’ll make an extreme choice.

The market has already cast its vote with its feet, and Trump’s bluster no longer works. Next, he will either produce tangible ceasefire results, or double down on the war with a stiff upper lip—either path is hard to take. As for whether he will really risk seizing the island and causing total trouble, we’ll keep watching to see clearly what his final cards are.

Part of the materials sourced from: Global Times, Xinhua News Agency

A wealth of information and precise analysis—available in the Sina Finance app