Next week's macro outlook: The sixth week of the war, Trump's script is about to collapse, CPI will surge, and gold prices may stage a big show

ME News updates, on April 4 (UTC+8), the U.S. released its nonfarm payrolls report on Friday, showing 178k jobs added, far above expectations. At the same time, the February figure was revised from an initial estimate of a decline of 92k to a decline of 133k, which provided near-term support for the U.S. dollar against the backdrop of falling odds of Fed rate cuts in 2026. The Iran war has entered its sixth week, and the “shock-and-awe” script favored by Trump is starting to fall apart. The market’s more critical test is also coming: the first CPI after the outbreak is set to be released soon, and inflation could run wild. Some people have warned, “This is not the time to trade.” Here are the key points that the market will focus on in the new week (all in Beijing time): Monday 22:00, the U.S. March ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI; Tuesday 23:00, the U.S. March New York Fed 1-year inflation expectations; Wednesday 00:35, comments on monetary policy by 2027 FOMC voter and Chicago Fed President Goolsbee; Thursday 02:00, the Federal Reserve releases the minutes of its monetary policy meeting; Thursday 20:30, the U.S. weekly initial jobless claims, the U.S. February core PCE price index (year-over-year), the U.S. February personal spending (month-over-month), the final U.S. Q4 real GDP annualized quarterly rate, the final U.S. Q4 real personal consumption expenditures quarterly rate, the final U.S. Q4 core PCE price index annualized quarterly rate, and the U.S. February core PCE price index (month-over-month); Friday 20:30, the U.S. March unadjusted CPI (year-over-year) / core CPI (year-over-year), and the U.S. March seasonally adjusted CPI (month-over-month) / core CPI (month-over-month). Friday 22:00, the initial forecast for the U.S. April one-year inflation rate, the initial reading of the University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index for the U.S. in April, and the U.S. February factory orders (month-over-month) (Source: PANews)