April 7 Market Overview: Non-farm payrolls surprise with 178k jobs added, Trump issues final warning "Bomb the power plant tomorrow"

48 hours to decide life and death.

By: Deep Tide TechFlow

US stocks: behind a four-session winning streak, an extremely dangerous countdown

On Monday, Wall Street reopened after a three-day holiday, with both a blockbuster nonfarm report and a final ultimatum from the president sitting on the table.

First, the good news. During the market closure on Friday, the March nonfarm employment data came out explosive: 178k jobs added, three times Wall Street’s expectation (60k). The unemployment rate fell from 4.4% to 4.3%. The core driver of the hiring rebound was the healthcare sector (+76k). After the Kaiser Medical strike in February ended, 31k nurses returned to work, directly lifting the numbers. Construction added 26k, transportation and warehousing added 21k, and manufacturing added 15k. The federal government continued to cut jobs (-18k), and the financial sector also kept bleeding (-15k).

More painful, though, were the revisions: February’s nonfarm jobs were dramatically revised from -92k down to -133k. That means the employment collapse in February was far worse than we thought. In Q1, average monthly net job gains were only 68k; two years ago, that figure would have been enough to trigger a recession alarm. But the rules of the game in 2026 have changed. The Dallas Fed’s latest research shows that, due to a sharp drop in immigration and a decline in labor force participation, the “breakeven employment” needed to keep the unemployment rate steady is now approaching zero. In other words, 68k may not be weakness—it may be the “new normal.”

The market chose the optimistic side. The Dow rose 165 points (+0.36%) to close at 46,669.88. The S&P 500 gained 0.44% to 6,611.83. The Nasdaq rose 0.54% to 21,996.34. The S&P logged its fourth straight day of gains, setting the longest winning streak since January.

Now the bad news. The ISM services data delivered a terrifying combination: the index itself fell to 54 (still above the expansion line), but the prices component surged to 70.7, a new high since October 2022. The employment component plunged to 45.2, a new low since December 2023. Put into plain English: companies are raising prices, but cutting headcount. That’s the textbook inflation-plus-weak-growth signal.

After the nonfarm release, the yield on the 10-year US Treasury jumped to around 4.35%. The bond market message is crystal clear: don’t keep thinking about rate cuts. Morgan Stanley’s Caldwell was blunt: “This data gives the Fed even more confidence to stay put.” The market has even started pricing in a small probability of rate hikes this year.

At the individual stock level, big tech provided the main support. Alphabet and Amazon each rose more than 1%, and Micron Technology rose 3.2%. Boeing led the Dow up 1.92%. But Tesla remained under pressure, down 2.2%. JPMorgan’s Brinkman maintained a “significantly undervalued” view, setting a $145 price target—implying about 60% downside from the current price. Brinkman pointed out an absurd fact: Tesla’s current stock price is still 50% higher than it was at the time deliveries peaked in June 2022, but in Q1 the actual delivery volume was more than 178k units lower than analysts’ expectations at the time.

The Dow Transportation Index has crashed 9% over the past three trading days, marking the biggest three-day drop since the “Liberation Day” selloff in April last year. United Airlines fell more than 6%, Uber fell 3.5%, XPO fell 3.5%—these highly oil-price-sensitive stocks are issuing warnings: the fear of growth has far from ended.

What really holds everyone’s breath is this: at Monday’s press conference, Trump reiterated that if Iran does not reopen the Strait of Hormuz by 8:00 PM on Tuesday, the US will destroy Iran’s power plants and bridges. “Tuesday will be power plant day and bridge day—combined into one. Unprecedented!” he wrote on Truth Social.

Meanwhile, multiple diplomatic channels are racing against time. Axios reported that the US, Iran, and regional mediators are discussing a possible 45-day ceasefire deal. Reuters also reported that Iran and the US have received a peace proposal containing “an immediate ceasefire and reopening the strait.” But as of the time of writing, neither side has officially accepted it.

Oil prices: a scary night at $119

Late Sunday evening, the moment the crude oil futures market reopened, both WTI and Brent surged to 119 dollars—its highest level since the 2022 Russia-Ukraine war. Even more unusual: at that moment, the two major benchmark crude prices reached parity. Under normal circumstances, WTI trades at a $3 to $7 discount to Brent; this “parity” means the global crude oil pricing system is getting distorted under extreme stress.

After that, ceasefire rumors pushed oil prices lower. By the close of US stocks on Monday, WTI had fallen back to around $112, but it was still significantly above Thursday’s close of $111.54 last week.

The market now faces a classic binary bet: if some kind of agreement is reached before 8:00 PM on Tuesday (even if vague), oil prices could drop by $20–30 within 48 hours. If Trump truly orders strikes on Iran’s infrastructure, oil prices could surge toward $130, even $150.

Analysts are reminding people of a risk that has been overlooked: even if the war ends tomorrow, the global refining system has already suffered structural damage from a supply shock lasting six weeks. Restoring normal transportation and refining capacity will take months, not days. “Higher for longer” is no longer just a slogan.

Gold: the forgotten king of safe havens

Gold prices traded in a tight $4,660–4,680 per ounce range on Monday, with little volatility.

This is a position worth pondering. In the crucial 24 hours before a potential escalation—or a possible end—to the conflict, gold didn’t explode higher (betting on escalation) and didn’t crash lower (betting on peace). It’s waiting.

Since hitting a record high of $5,595 in January, gold has retraced by nearly 17%. But structurally, the $4,600–$4,700 range is forming a base. In its baseline scenario, State Street’s monthly gold monitoring report projects $4,750–$5,500 (50% probability). Its bullish scenario is $5,500–$6,250 (35% probability). $4,400–$4,600 is viewed as “very strong support.”

A signal most people overlook: the US dollar’s share in global FX reserves has fallen to its lowest level since 1994 (about 40%), while gold’s share in reserves has risen to its highest level since 1991 (about 30%). Central banks are voting with their feet.

Cryptocurrency: ceasefire hopes spark a rebound, but fear is still at a freezing point

On Monday, the crypto market saw its strongest rebound in weeks.

According to CoinDesk data, Bitcoin rose about 3.5% to around $69,700, briefly breaking above the $69,200 level during the session. Ethereum rose 4.8% to $2,149. Global crypto total market capitalization rebounded to $2.45 trillion.

The immediate catalyst for the rebound was ceasefire rumors. The 45-day ceasefire + proposal to reopen the strait gave risk assets a sliver of hope. But on-chain data shows that this rebound was driven more by short-covering than new long entries: open interest fell 8% during the rebound, and the funding rate remained negative (-0.003%). Annualized perpetual contract basis compressed to 0.12%, the lowest since March 2024. Trading volume was 18% lower than the 30-day average.

In simple terms: prices went up, but conviction didn’t.

Big moves to watch: Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) disclosed that from April 1 to April 5 it bought about $330 million worth of Bitcoin again, further cementing its position as the world’s largest corporate BTC holder. Strategy’s stock price rose 4.7% on Monday, while Bitcoin rose 3.7%. The company now holds about $58 billion worth of Bitcoin, but BTC is down about 20% this year.

The Fear and Greed Index rose from 8 last week to 13—still in the “extreme fear” range, and the seventh consecutive week below 25. Historical data remains reassuring: since 2018, every time the index broke below 15, Bitcoin’s median gain after 90 days was 38.4%. But the condition is—this time’s bottom isn’t a fake bottom.

Bitcoin’s technical resistance levels are at $71,500, and it has failed multiple times to break through. If the ceasefire lands and oil prices crash, this wall could be broken in one push. If Tuesday brings loud explosions rather than peace, the $65,000 support will be tested again.

Today’s wrap-up: 48 hours to decide life and death

On April 7, with the last countdown into the sixth week of the Iran-US conflict, all assets are on the same betting table:

US stocks: The S&P has a four-session winning streak, up 0.44% to 6,611.83. Nonfarm added 178k above expectations, but the ISM services prices spike + employment collapse equals “stagflation.”

Oil prices: After WTI briefly touched $119 in Sunday night trading, it pulled back to $112. Trump’s “power plant day” ultimatum and ceasefire rumors are both in play at the same time.

Gold: Gold prices are waiting for judgment in the $4,660–$4,680 range, with continued central bank buying providing a structural floor.

Cryptocurrency: Bitcoin rebounds to $69,700, with ceasefire hopes driving short covering. Strategy buys another $330 million of BTC. The Fear Index is 13, still bitterly cold.

Now the market only cares about one question: by 8:00 PM on Tuesday, will it be a ceasefire agreement or a bombing order?

If the 45-day ceasefire proposal is reached, oil prices could fall back to the $80–90 range within days, and the stock market could see a sharp rebound. Bitcoin could also challenge $75,000. If Trump carries out the “power plant day” threat, oil prices will move toward $130, the S&P could retest this year’s lows, and the crypto market will be flooded again by panic.

In 48 hours, we’ll know the answer.