April 7 Market Overview: Non-farm payrolls surprise with 178k jobs added, Trump issues final warning "Bomb the power plant tomorrow"

By: Deep Sea TechFlow

U.S. stocks: Behind a four-day winning streak, an extremely dangerous countdown

On Monday, Wall Street reopened after a three-day long holiday, with a super-NFP report and the president’s final ultimatum sitting on the books at the same time.

Let’s start with the good news. During the Friday market holiday, the March nonfarm employment data came in explosively: 178k new jobs added—three times Wall Street’s expectation (60k). The unemployment rate fell from 4.4% to 4.3%. The core driver of improving employment is the healthcare sector (+76k). After the Kaiser Medical strike in February ended, 31k nurses returned to work, directly boosting the numbers. Construction added another 26k, transportation and warehousing added 21k, and manufacturing added 15k. The federal government continued layoffs (-18k), and financials also bled (-15k).

Even more painful are the revised figures: February’s nonfarm payrolls were cut significantly from -92k to -133k. That means the employment collapse in February was far worse than we thought. In Q1, average monthly net job gains were only 68k; two years ago, that number alone would have triggered a recession alarm. But the rules for 2026 have already changed. The Dallas Fed’s latest research shows that, due to a sharp drop in immigration and a decline in the labor force participation rate, “break-even employment” needed to keep the unemployment rate stable is now close to zero. In other words, 68k may not signal weakness—it could be the “new normal.”

The market chose the optimistic side. The Dow rose 165 points (+0.36%) to close at 46,669.88. The S&P 500 gained 0.44% to 6,611.83. The Nasdaq rose 0.54% to 21,996.34. The S&P 500 logged a four-day winning streak, its longest run of consecutive gains since January.

Now for the bad news. ISM services data delivered a terrifying combination: the index itself fell to 54 (still above the expansion line), but the prices component surged to 70.7, a new high since October 2022. The employment component plunged to 45.2, the lowest since December 2023. Put into plain English: companies are raising prices, but cutting jobs. This is textbook stagflation signaling.

After the nonfarm release, the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury jumped to around 4.35%. The bond market’s message is clear: don’t keep thinking about rate cuts. Morgan Stanley’s Caldwell put it bluntly: “This data gives the Fed more confidence to stand pat.” The market has even begun pricing in a small probability of rate hikes this year.

At the single-stock level, big tech provided the main support. Alphabet and Amazon each rose more than 1%, and Micron Technology rose 3.2%. Boeing led the Dow up 1.92%. But Tesla remained under pressure, down 2.2%. JPMorgan’s Brinkman maintained its “materially undervalued” call, with a $145 price target—implying about 60% downside from the current price. Brinkman pointed out an absurd fact: Tesla’s current share price is still about 50% higher than it was when delivery volumes topped in June 2022, yet in Q1 the actual deliveries were more than 178k below analysts’ expectations from back then.

The Dow Transportation Index collapsed, down 9% over the past three trading days, the largest three-day drop since last April’s “Liberation Day” selloff. United Airlines fell more than 6%, Uber fell 3.5%, and XPO fell 3.5%. These oil-price-sensitive stocks are sounding an alarm: the fear of slowing growth is far from over.

What truly held everyone’s breath was this: At Monday’s press conference, Trump reiterated that if Iran does not reopen the Strait of Hormuz by 8 p.m. Tuesday, the U.S. will destroy Iran’s power plants and bridges. “Tuesday will be the day of power plants and the day of bridges—together as one. Unprecedented!” he wrote on Truth Social.

Meanwhile, multiple diplomatic channels are racing against the clock. Axios reported that the U.S., Iran, and regional mediators are discussing a possible 45-day ceasefire agreement. Reuters also reported that Iran and the U.S. have received a peace proposal that includes “an immediate ceasefire and reopening the strait.” But as of the time of publication, neither side has formally accepted it.

Oil prices: A terrifying night around $119

Late Sunday evening, the moment the crude oil futures market reopened, WTI and Brent both surged to $119— the highest level since the 2022 Russia-Ukraine war. Even more rare: at that moment, the two major benchmark crude prices reached parity. Normally, WTI trades at a $3 to $7 discount versus Brent. This “parity” means the global crude oil pricing system is being distorted under extreme pressure.

After that, ceasefire rumors pushed oil prices lower. By the close of U.S. stocks on Monday, WTI had fallen back to around $112, though it remained significantly above last Thursday’s $111.54 close.

What the market faces now is a classic binary game: if some kind of agreement is reached by 8 p.m. Tuesday (even a vague one), oil prices could drop by $20–30 within 48 hours; if Trump truly orders strikes on Iran’s infrastructure, oil could surge toward $130 and even $150.

Analysts are reminding people of a risk that’s been overlooked: even if the war ends tomorrow, the global refining system has already suffered structural damage from the six-week supply shock. Restoring normal transport and refining capacity will take months, not days. “Higher for longer” is no longer just a slogan.

Gold: The forgotten king of safe havens

Gold prices traded in a $4,660–$4,680 per ounce range on Monday, with relatively limited volatility.

This is an intriguing setup. In the key 24 hours when escalation could happen—or could end—gold didn’t rip higher (betting on escalation) and didn’t plunge (betting on peace). It’s waiting.

Since setting a record high of $5,595 in January, gold has pulled back by nearly 17%. But structurally, the $4,600–$4,700 range is forming a base. In State Street’s monthly gold monitoring report, the baseline scenario is $4,750–$5,500 (50% probability), while the bull case is $5,500–$6,250 (35% probability). $4,400–$4,600 is viewed as “very strong support.”

A signal most people ignore: the dollar’s share in global FX reserves has fallen to the lowest level since 1994 (around 40%), while gold’s share has risen to the highest level since 1991 (around 30%). Central banks are voting with their feet.

Cryptocurrency: Ceasefire hopes spark a rebound, but fear is still at a freezing point

On Monday, the crypto market saw its strongest rebound in weeks.

According to CoinDesk data, Bitcoin rose about 3.5% to around $69,700, and briefly broke above the $69,200 level intraday. Ethereum rose 4.8% to $2,149. Global total crypto market capitalization climbed back to $2.45 trillion.

The direct catalyst for the rebound was ceasefire rumors. The 45-day ceasefire plus reopening the strait proposal gave risk assets a single thread of hope. But on-chain data shows this rebound is more about short covering than fresh long entries: open interest fell by 8% during the rebound, the funding rate remained negative (-0.003%), the annualized premium on perpetual contracts compressed to 0.12%, the lowest since March 2024. Trading volume was 18% below the 30-day average.

In simple terms: prices are up, but conviction isn’t.

Big moves to watch: Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) disclosed that between April 1 and April 5, it bought about $330 million worth of Bitcoin again, further cementing its position as the world’s largest corporate BTC holder. Strategy’s stock price rose 4.7% on Monday, while Bitcoin rose 3.7%. The company now holds roughly $58 billion in Bitcoin, but BTC is down about 20% this year.

The Fear and Greed Index rose from 8 last week to 13—still within the “extreme fear” range, marking the seventh consecutive week below 25. Comfort from historical data remains valid: since 2018, every time the index has fallen below 15, Bitcoin’s median return after 90 days has been 38.4%. But the condition is—this time, the bottom isn’t a false bottom.

Bitcoin faces a technical resistance level at $71,500, which has failed to break through multiple times. If the ceasefire lands and oil prices crash, this wall could be broken in one shot. If Tuesday brings the sound of bombs rather than peace, support at $65,000 will face renewed scrutiny.

Today’s wrap-up: 48 hours decide life or death

On April 7, the final countdown to the sixth week of the Iran-U.S. war begins, with all assets on the same betting table:

U.S. stocks: S&P ends four straight up days, up 0.44% to 6,611.83. Nonfarm beat with 178k, but ISM services prices surged + employment collapsed = “stagflation” in two words.

Oil prices: WTI briefly touched $119 late Sunday night, then pulled back to $112. Trump’s “power plant day” ultimatum and ceasefire rumors are both in play.

Gold: Gold is waiting for judgment in the $4,660–$4,680 range, while steady central bank accumulation provides a structural bottom.

Cryptocurrency: Bitcoin rebounds to $69,700, driven by ceasefire hopes and short covering. Strategy buys another $330 million of BTC. Fear Index at 13, still ice-cold.

The market now only cares about one question: before 8 p.m. Tuesday, will it be a ceasefire agreement—or a bombing order?

If the 45-day ceasefire plan is reached, oil could fall back into the $80–90 range within days, equities could see a sharp rebound, and Bitcoin could challenge $75,000. If Trump carries out the threats of “power plant day,” oil will move toward $130, the S&P could retest this year’s lows, and the crypto market will once again be drowned in panic.

In 48 hours, we’ll know the answer.