Market Strategy Tips (April 6 — April 7, Yesterday to Today)

Market Analysis
From yesterday to today (April 6 — April 7), the market is in a tug-of-war phase characterized by “hawkish pricing of strong non-farm payroll data + escalating Middle East geopolitical tensions + the US dollar and US Treasuries oscillating at high levels.” Gold has been trading within a narrow range of $4,600–$4,700, showing signs of oversold correction followed by weak consolidation, with increasing bullish and bearish divergence. The crypto market stabilized after rebounding from the $66k level, with Bitcoin temporarily breaking through the $70k mark. Mainstream cryptocurrencies followed suit, driven by short covering and institutional fund inflows, resulting in an oversold rebound pattern with significantly increased volatility.
Macro News
1. The core trading logic has shifted to a main theme: “Post-strong non-farm payroll data, the Fed’s high interest rate long-term pricing becomes entrenched + Middle East geopolitical game of life and death + global risk appetite recovery from lows.” Expectations for rate cuts within the year remain frozen. The US March non-farm payroll added 178k jobs, far exceeding the expected 65k, with the unemployment rate falling to 4.3%. The resilience of the labor market exceeded expectations, reinforcing the Fed’s stance of “maintaining high rates longer.” Currently, the CME FedWatch tool shows a 99.5% probability of no rate change in April and 97.5% in June, with only one rate cut priced in for the year, pushed back to after September. The market’s expectation of no rate cuts continues to rise. The US dollar index remains steady at 104.85, and the 10-year US Treasury yield stays high at around 4.39%, with real interest rates rising, exerting medium- to long-term pressure on gold, cryptocurrencies, and other non-yield assets. The Middle East geopolitical situation has entered a critical window. The 48-hour ultimatum issued by Trump to Iran has expired, and Iran and the US still have not reached a compromise on navigation through the Strait of Hormuz. Iran continues to push forward with “real commitments - 4” military operations, completing the 97th wave of precise strikes, attacking Israeli energy facilities and US military bases in the Middle East. Spillover risks remain. Brent crude oil remains stable above $110 per barrel, with inflation concerns slightly warming, and risk aversion sentiment showing a weak tug-of-war. Gold has found a bottom support but has not triggered a trend reversal.
2. Gold, after being oversold, has experienced a narrow-range correction, with geopolitical safe-haven support and macro hawkish pressure forming a two-way game, resulting in overall weak consolidation. International spot gold dipped to a low of $4,608.30 per ounce yesterday morning, then rebounded to as high as $4,700, and is currently at $4,656.39, down slightly by 0.04% for the day, maintaining a narrow range of $4,600–$4,700. COMEX gold futures also oscillated, with the latest at $4,687.9 per ounce, up 0.07% for the day. In the domestic market, gold T+D futures closed at 1034.79 RMB/gram before the holiday, and Shanghai Gold continuous contract closed at 1033 RMB/gram. Major retail prices for mainstream brands remain between 1382–1435 RMB/gram. The core drivers of this round of market: first, technical oversold correction, with RSI entering deep oversold territory after previous sharp declines, triggering physical buying and technical low-entry funds below $4,600; second, safe-haven demand driven by recurring Middle East conflicts providing bottom support; third, the long-term logic of global central banks continuing to buy gold remains unchanged, forming rigid support in the $4,550–$4,600 range. The main resistance factors remain: the global largest gold ETF, SPDR Gold Trust, held steady at 1050.99 tons on April 2, with net outflows exceeding $11.5 billion since March, and institutional long positions have not shown significant rebound. US Treasury yields and the dollar index remain high, with no fundamental shift in macro tightening. Key levels: core support at $4,600–$4,620, strong support at $4,550 (previous multi-directional pivot; breaking below opens downside); core resistance at $4,680–$4,700, strong resistance at $4,750–$4,800 (near historical highs, strong resistance for bulls).
3. The crypto market has rebounded strongly after bottoming out, with Bitcoin reclaiming the $70k level. Short covering and marginal inflows from institutional funds are the main drivers, and market sentiment has significantly improved. Yesterday, Bitcoin dipped to a low of $66,500, then continued rising, briefly surpassing $70,200, hitting a one-week high. Currently, it has pulled back to $69,800 in the morning session, up 3.88% over 24 hours. Ethereum also strengthened, reaching a high of $2,120, now at $2,095, up over 4% in 24 hours, with all major cryptocurrencies closing higher. Regarding funds and on-chain data: BTC spot ETFs ended several days of net outflows, with a total net inflow of $69.6 million since April. Fidelity’s FBTC continued increasing holdings, and Grayscale’s GBTC net outflows significantly narrowed, easing institutional selling pressure. The 24-hour global liquidation in the derivatives market involved 87k traders with a total of $186 million in liquidations, with short positions accounting for 62%, indicating that short covering after oversold conditions was a key factor in this rebound. On-chain data shows daily net outflows of over 12k BTC from exchanges, with large whale addresses accumulating in the $64k–$66k range. Large transfers of thousands of coins show increased holdings, with long-term addresses accounting for over 60%, indicating limited underlying selling pressure. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index has risen to 28, moving out of the extreme fear zone, signaling a notable improvement in market sentiment. Technically, the daily chart successfully reclaimed the critical levels of $68k and $70k, easing short-term bearish momentum. However, the $72.5k–$75k zone remains a strong resistance area. The medium-term downtrend has not fundamentally reversed, and signs of large-scale new capital entering are still not evident. The market remains primarily a battle of existing positions.
Special Reminder
Gold is still in a narrow-range correction cycle after oversold conditions. The unexpectedly strong non-farm payroll data further reinforce the macro pressure of the Fed’s prolonged high interest rates. Middle East geopolitical safe-haven support only provides a bottom floor and has not driven a bullish trend reversal. Resistance above $4,700 is very strong. Additionally, with the expiration of the ultimatum, geopolitical uncertainty remains high, increasing price volatility risks. Do not blindly chase longs; beware of a secondary decline driven by easing geopolitical tensions or rising US Treasury yields. It is recommended to operate with light positions, only attempting small longs within the support zone of $4,600–$4,620, with strict stop-loss at $4,550. Consider reducing positions on rallies above $4,680, maintaining strict position control, and prioritizing risk avoidance.
Although the crypto market rebounded strongly near $64k with marginal improvement in funds and short-term recapture of the $70k level, it remains in a correction phase after previous declines. The strong resistance zone above $72.5k has not been effectively broken. Market sentiment has improved but is not yet fully stabilized, and short-term volatility remains high. Heavy long positions and contrarian bottom-fishing are strictly prohibited. Keep positions within 30%. Only consider adding on dips if the market stabilizes above $72.5k with sustained volatility decline and continuous ETF net inflows. If the price drops again below the $68k support, the current rebound trend will be over, and risk control should be prioritized, with a wait-and-see approach recommended.