April 4, 2026 Holiday Review: Hope comes after despair!

Early April is basically a knockout. At this moment, analyzing the market’s行情 feels like it would only add anxiety, but the fact is just that—at the open, it went straight on the attack with CPO, optical communications, optical chips, and so on. Actually, on the U.S. markets at night, Nvidia didn’t really move higher, but on our side, with the market shrinking in volume at the open, the entire AI hardware complex was pushed up. Deko Li, Tengjing Technology, Guangju Technology, Changfei Optic Fiber, Jixin Yuchuang, and others—throughout the whole optics direction, everything was rallying. When I was reviewing afterward, I judged whether the actions being taken were reasonable by looking at the main players’ past moves and the current situation! [Taoguba]

So, is the rise in optics today reasonable? I think it’s not. Because if there really were good news, how big would that news have to be to support the entire sector staying firmly supported collectively for this long in a shrinking-volume market? If it’s earnings, then Demingli and 3V Storage and these stocks have already given the answer. If it’s industry logic, then these stocks that are rising are not doing it on the very first day—starting from the first day they rose, they were already talking about logic, talking about the future expectations! But the result is that it’s actually going up, in a very concrete way—then assume the market is right, that this side has extremely strong positive catalysts enough to support optics to gap up collectively today, and the final pullback was Yi Zhongtian and some of the optical communications, optical source, optical modules, and the few relatively strong names on the Google chain. Then the question comes again: one of the strongest directions in the market keeps attacking the highs, while other directions are falling so badly they can’t fall any more—is it that A-shares only has this one direction, or is it that funds chose this direction and are clustering together?

So today, many people think back to the time of baijiu and pharmaceuticals. Back then, baijiu and pharmaceuticals showed up the situation where funds were subject to subscription limits. That kind of tactic is something they’re familiar with to the point of cliché—hunger marketing. This is how you define Yi Zhongtian on today’s board—namely, an institutional direction clustering together. Many retail investors today also say: since this direction has surged so well, why not buy this direction? I think this has been good for not just one or two days. If it were truly that good, Jixin Yuchuang wouldn’t, over these four days, keep either gapping down at the open or gapping up at the open, going back and forth. Who is that aimed at? It’s pure hindsight thinking. That mindset is deadly!

Everything above is derived from logic, and then conversely from a technical perspective. Taking Hengtong Optic-Electric as an example: the best move at the open should have been optics, and logically if funds chose to pull up this direction, Hengtong Optic-Electric had already reached near the daily limit by 9:46. The sector strength was continuously providing support. Yet Hengtong Optic-Electric kept not sealing the limit. This is a detail. Later, after Deko Li hit the limit, it also frequently broke the seal. Here it can be understood as: the index was too weak, so it was dragged down by the broader market—then continue to follow the main player’s actions to look at it.

Why would the main player accelerate at this position?
When thinking about the problem, go directly to look at the outcome. Since yesterday, Changfei Optic Fiber has been driven by quant trading—that’s also a detail. These details are all burying hidden risks for what comes next. Then when it breaks out and goes into acceleration from a high level, are things really that good to this extent? I don’t think so. In a normal phase, when a rally accelerates, it usually means the main player is preparing to start pulling in the net. Just think—when it accelerates, what effect does it have? The main player’s opponent is retail investors. If retail investors see it but it still doesn’t come down, what will they do? That’s why this is related to why the market has been continuously selling off hard. The optics sub-sector is a cover for CPO—overtly marching the road, silently crossing the planks—pressuring other things so that the market only has this one “light.” Everyone’s attention converges on this “light,” and in the end they go to do the inheritor of optics!—Here I first want to declare clearly: my review is only my personal speculation and viewpoint, and does not constitute any kind of opinion. Because in CPO, there are the most people, so it’s easy to get sprayed. Even if CPO comes down, it’ll be very slow. Every era has its own “stabilizer” stocks. In the baijiu era, it was Kweichow Moutai; in the新能源 era, it was CATL. This time is the same. So after Yi Zhongtian, it also becomes the stabilizer stock for the ChiNext market.

A normal market is definitely not like this. The broad rally in AI hardware shows that the market actually has money, but that money hasn’t given even a fraction to the masses. The main players emphasized a “slow bull” earlier, but their thinking and their actions are different. And you can’t say the actions are different—it’s just too ugly. So later, the board will either stabilize those that fell first, or else high-position names will need to catch up with declines. There will always be one side that corrects. During this process, you use a new framework. Now the market sentiment and institutional rotation run like this—so when a theme comes out, it’s very easy to see an A-kill situation. That’s a main player’s tactic, and also a tactic for a slow bull. So it’s “too ugly” because once retail chases in, they usually get out of the trapped position— even if it rebounds, it might be after a quarter. One up and one down, half a year is gone. But during that time, as long as retail’s position control isn’t good, sorry, even if it pulls back, it’s only getting back to break-even—there’s no profit.

On Thursday, the things that were active in the market were mostly convertible bonds, the Beijing Stock Exchange, new listings, and so on. Without any theme breaking out, even pharma itself had differences—very few stocks hit limit-up. Today not only had fewer limit-ups, but also more limit-downs. Here, what we’re doing now is two things: either try out new first boards themes for experimentation, or just wait for the market to come down. Either institutions push it, or retail investors push it. Retail investors don’t have the leading power. If neither of these does their job, then it has no meaning. So that’s why when people mention things like Yi Zhongtian, it becomes meaningless, because institutions did the work but did it in the wrong place. When retail sees funds going to do the optics side, they can use quant tools to ride the wave. For example, Deko Li at the open was already gapped up. In the first 3 minutes it directly reached about 13%. At that point, do you enter or not? That’s the “retail picked the strongest” choice. If not, did they choose Source-Jie Technology or Guangju Technology? Then at this position, are retail investors still planning to take a swing trade? I don’t think so. So the significance isn’t there. It’s not that you can’t make money— the risk/reward ratio is just too low!

As for the consecutive limit-up group, it basically feels like there are no living players. One Jinyang Pharmacy and Biology (Jinyang Yaoye?) reached a six-board streak; everything else is separated by gaps—only one-to-two boards and a few. Huaiyuan Communication is still a one-line board. First boards were only a little more than last Friday: 36. But last Friday there were 24 stocks hitting limit-down, and there were also stocks with three consecutive limit-downs. Here, there’s no need to say it’s about the pre-holiday effect. Liquidity is lacking. This scene didn’t start only this month—it’s been like this since after the New Year. So first, puncture the fairytales of those who think it’s the pre-holiday effect.

The reason is basically that everyone has been fooled too many times, and trading volume has been shrinking all along. Last Friday’s turnover was only 1.67T—pretty much most people believe that at this point, the creation of a “second foot” is likely to happen. Every time we bet on that oversold rebound, we end up getting slapped with the same lesson. Ask yourself honestly: are we missing that day’s rebound? I think we’re not. What we lack is the environment and confidence. That’s what we should be looking for right now!

The “environment” is nothing more than the continuity of themes, and funds entering—that is, the amplification of trading volume. On that basis, besides optics, everything else keeps falling without stopping. So are the logic behind optics really that hard? I think storage chips already explains everything very well. If it’s not based on optics logic, then why would funds go to optics? Is it really just copying Moutai and CATL? I don’t think it’s entirely like that. It’s definitely that institutions are piling up and clustering together. In the past, institutions ate this kind of亏 (loss) before. But now they’re discussing “clustering.” Clustering together has to prove who’s wrong—otherwise they wouldn’t cluster. So here it echoes the earlier speculation: because it’s wrong, that’s why they cluster together. So what we want isn’t CPO coming down; what we want is that funds stop getting involved in optics, and then the market is allowed to build confidence again. The market being good doesn’t mean CPO is bad—these two are not a conflicting relationship. It wasn’t before, either. It’s to dismantle this kind of clustering phenomenon, allowing funds to rebuild confidence, because the market’s volume (量能) is already low enough now. A “ground volume” shows “ground price.” At this position, we definitely need to wait for events—namely the U.S.-Iran conflict. When I wrote the review here, the U.S. side started talking about another 48-hour timeline. Coincidentally, it lines up right before our open, so we wait for that event to land. Like last Friday, many items were shrinking in volume while falling big. Unless they gap up to relieve the pressure, shrinking-volume big declines still have to keep falling. That’s why the reason to reduce holdings last week. If the event truly lands, then on Tuesday it also wouldn’t be able to kill out the volume. Tuesday’s late session should be a chance for a kind of game—then look at the most powerful sector intraday!

The stock market is like a practice with no finish line. Some people rush in, some retreat halfway, some get lost in the ups and downs, and some accumulate in calm persistence. Today, in the comment section, someone said: the stock market doesn’t lack people who work hard—it lacks people who keep working hard consistently. It doesn’t lack people who make money—what it lacks is people who can steadily make money over the long term. Short-term effort may bring temporary gains, but only long-term perseverance and clear-headedness can help you stand firm in a market full of ever-changing twists, and truly reap growth and wealth.

In the market, you never lack the presence of people working hard. Some stay up late to study candlestick charts; some parse financial report data word by word. Some travel between all kinds of investment seminars, crazily absorbing so-called “stock trading secrets.” Some trade frequently, trying to catch every opportunity in every rise and fall—almost like they want to put 24 hours of the day into the stock market. These efforts can’t be called insincere, but most of the time, such efforts still can’t bring long-lasting returns. The reason is that this effort is often temporary and utilitarian—like a burst of three-minute heat. When the market pulls back, they lose heart; when they see others making profits, they blindly follow the crowd; and in the end, they burn out their energy in impatience and miss the real opportunities.

Real effort has never been a momentary surge of passion. It’s the kind of daily accumulation and sticking with it. Like those investors who have been consistently profitable over the long term—they may not have extraordinary talent, but they have the willpower that most people can’t reach. They won’t change their investment logic because of short-term gains or losses, and they won’t give up their坚持 because of a temporary drawdown. They keep studying every day, tracking industry dynamics, and reviewing their trading records—refining their investment system through repeated practice. They can endure loneliness, not chase rallies or sell in panic, not grab too much or rush for speed—always staying rational and restrained. This kind of sustained effort isn’t blind giving—it’s deep work with direction and a plan. Over time, it naturally forms your own trading rhythm, and in the market you find your own way to survive.

The charm of the stock market is that it never rejects those who work hard, but it also never favors those who are restless and impatient. There are always people who make money—when the market is good, even beginners can earn a lot just by luck. But the real test only comes after the good times fade. When the market hits a low point, those who made money through luck often cut losses in panic and exit the market,吐出 (giving back) all the profits. Meanwhile, those who have been steadily making money over the long term can keep their confidence in the low, and stick to their own investment principles. They understand that market fluctuations are normal; low points are never the end—they’re an opportunity to build power. By accumulating yourself in the low, reflecting on shortcomings, and waiting for the market to rebound, you can firmly seize opportunities when the time comes and achieve compound growth.

If the low point tests your confidence, then the high point tests self-examination. When the market is boiling with excitement and the money-making effect is obvious, many people get carried away by victory, forget about risk, increase their投入 blindly, and even use leveraged funds to chase even higher returns. But the more this happens, the easier it is to fall into the market’s traps. Those investors who are consistently profitable over the long run keep their heads clear when the trend is favorable. They periodically review their trading behavior, screen for potential risks, and take profit and cut losses in a timely manner. They don’t covet short-term windfalls, and they aren’t swept up by the market’s frenzy. They understand that after a高潮, a pullback usually follows. Only by maintaining a sense of respect and constantly examining yourself can you protect hard-won gains and avoid ending in failure due to one moment of carelessness.

The stock market is never a quick decisive battle—it’s a long war. It doesn’t test just your one-time effort and luck, but your long-term persistence and clear-headedness. One-time effort might help you make a little money, and one-time luck might bring surprises. But only by keeping at it can you continuously improve your investing ability. Only by staying rational can you remain profitable through market swings.

May every brother be able to put aside impatience, stick to your original intention, not give up confidence when you’re in the low, and not lose yourself when you’re in the high. Let sustained effort water hope, use clear-headedness to deal with the ups and downs, and in your practice in the stock market, gain the stability and calm that belongs to you. As for the rest, join me for the live stream on Sunday night at 8 PM!

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