Good news on performance reports keeps coming, lithium prices remain steadily in the "comfort zone," and the lithium carbonate industry may usher in new changes.

China’s A-share lithium ore sector’s 2025 annual reports have brought good news one after another. The lithium carbonate industry, which had fallen into a low point at one stage, has now sent out a strong “recovery signal.”

Tianqi Lithium, Ganfeng Lithium, Salt Lake Co., and other leading companies have successively delivered answers showing year-on-year profit growth. The core driver is the surge in downstream energy storage demand, which has supported stabilization and rebound in lithium carbonate prices. A reporter from Shanghai Securities News has found that since 2026, domestic battery-grade lithium carbonate prices have remained stable at around 150k yuan per ton. Standing in this industry-recognized “comfort zone” for prices, not only can most lithium ore companies achieve stable profitability, but it also eases cost-related anxiety for the energy storage sector.

From perspectives such as lithium carbonate inventory, supply growth rates, and downstream demand, industry participants generally believe that in 2026 the lithium carbonate market may take on a pattern of “tight balance throughout the year, with structural mismatches by quarter.” Competition in the industry is shifting from “broad rallies and easy profits” to “resources first, cost wins,” and two types of companies are expected to keep leading in the ongoing reshuffle of the sector.

A Rebound in Lithium Prices Restores Development Momentum

Leading Companies “Flip Around” First

As a bellwether for the lithium industry, the annual report performance of the “two lithium kingpins” is particularly impressive. The annual report shows that although Tianqi Lithium’s revenue of 150k yuan in 2025 fell year on year, its net profit rose sharply by 105.85% year on year to 463 million yuan, successfully turning a loss into a profit.

The reporter noted that the core backing for Tianqi Lithium’s earnings recovery lies in its global high-quality resource layout—its controlling stake in the Greenbushes lithium mine in Australia has continued to supply the company with low-cost lithium concentrate. At the same time, the strong performance growth of its investee company SQM has also boosted the company’s investment income significantly. Full-year net cash flow from operating activities reached 10.35B yuan.

Ganfeng Lithium is also among the companies that “flip around” in tandem. In 2025, the company achieved revenue of 2.96B yuan, up 22.08% year on year; and net profit of 23.08B yuan, turning sharply from loss to profit year on year.

According to disclosures, in 2025 Ganfeng Lithium achieved production volume of 182.4k tons LCE (lithium carbonate equivalent), up 40.05% year on year; and achieved sales volume of 184.8k tons LCE, up 42.47% year on year. Its production and sales data make it clear that the growth in lithium carbonate demand is a key factor behind the company’s improved performance.

Compared with hard-rock lithium mine enterprises, Salt Lake extraction companies have become “top-tier” earners by virtue of their innate cost advantages. Salt Lake Co.’s 2025 annual report disclosed late on March 30 shows that the company achieved operating revenue of 1.61B yuan, up 2.43% year on year. In 2025, the company produced 46.5k tons of lithium carbonate and sold 45.6k tons. Looking at Tibet Q A mining industry in comparison: in 2025, Zangge Mining achieved net profit of 182.4k yuan, up 49.32% year on year. Of that, fourth-quarter net profit was 184.8k yuan, up 54.7% year on year—an unmistakable trend of earnings improving quarter by quarter.

Besides leading companies, some lithium ore manufacturers have also seen earnings recover. Tianyuan Co., Ltd. achieved net profit of 87.7825 million yuan in 2025, turning from loss to profit year on year; and Rongjie Co., Ltd. achieved profit of 279 million yuan in 2025, up 29.52% year on year.

Supply Increments Are Limited

Full-Year Supply and Demand May Remain “Tightly Balanced”

As the lithium carbonate market becomes active again, the supply-and-demand landscape for lithium carbonate in 2026 has become a key focus for industry participants. After interviewing several industry analysts and company insiders, the reporter learned that the global lithium carbonate market in 2026 may shift from the structural oversupply seen from 2023 to 2025 to a new pattern of “tight balance throughout the year, with structural mismatches by quarter,” in which there may be a noticeable supply shortfall in this year’s fourth quarter.

“Global lithium carbonate in 2026 won’t face widespread shortages, but the certainty of structural and seasonal gaps is very high.” A person from an A-share lithium ore company told reporters that downstream demand growth will very likely outpace the industry’s ability to respond on the supply side. Combined with industry inventory sitting at historically low levels, lithium prices likely won’t fall. The full year should maintain a relatively strong run.

On the supply side, some institutions predict that global lithium carbonate production in 2026 will be about 2.13 million tons, up 28% year on year, with an additional 460k tons of capacity added. However, supply releases show a clear “low at first, high later” characteristic, and they are constrained by multiple factors, so actual effective incremental supply may be lower than expected.

In terms of domestic supply, incremental supply mainly comes from salt-lake lithium extraction and hard-rock lithium mines, but most projects are in ramp-up periods, so incremental supply in the first half of the year is limited. For overseas supply, the pace of capacity expansion for core projects slows down, and tighter policies in resource countries may become a major constraint. Based on estimates, overseas lithium carbonate supply growth in 2026 is only 18%, far below demand growth.

The demand side shows a strong “dual-engine” momentum. In 2026, global lithium carbonate demand is expected to reach 2.00 million tons LCE to 2.07 million tons LCE, up 27% to 30% year on year. Incremental demand would be 470k to 520k tons. Huajin Futures expects that energy storage battery demand will, for the first time, surpass motive power batteries and become the largest source of incremental lithium carbonate demand.

“Driven by China’s new energy storage installation plan and overseas energy storage demand, global energy storage shipments in 2026 are expected to reach 820 GWh, up 57.8% year on year, corresponding to lithium carbonate demand of 480k to 520k tons LCE, up 40% to 50%.” A securities analyst said in an interview with the reporter that energy storage’s demand for lithium shows a “rigid + high growth” characteristic, making it the core driver pulling lithium carbonate consumption.

On the inventory side, according to statistics from Shanghai Metals Market (SMM) dated March 23, lithium carbonate inventory that week held steady at 99k tons, with total inventory days below 20 days—an all-time low level over the past three years. Specifically: lithium salt producers had inventory of 17k tons; downstream inventory was 46k tons; and inventory in other links was 36k tons. In reality, low inventory strongly supports lithium prices’ fundamentals.

Combining both supply and demand, in 2026 the global lithium carbonate market may maintain “tight balance” throughout the year. As incremental capacity is gradually released from the second quarter to the third quarter, supply and demand may ease slightly. Still, the installation peak for energy storage will continue to support demand. In the fourth quarter, due to reduced winter production from salt lakes and demand replenishment during a downstream stocking season, supply may show a certain shortfall.

A Battle Over the “Comfort Zone” for Prices

150k yuan/ton May Become the Equilibrium Point

Based on the judgment that supply and demand for lithium carbonate will remain “tightly balanced” across the whole year, lithium carbonate prices may not experience overly large fluctuations. What other views does the industry hold on this?

“Lithium carbonate prices stabilize in the 150k to 160k yuan per ton range. For the industry, this price is ‘just right’—it allows lithium ore companies to make money, while not suppressing downstream energy storage companies’ investment enthusiasm due to excessively high prices.” A person familiar with the energy storage industry said candidly.

The reporter learned that the current 150k yuan/ton lithium carbonate price level has already become the industry-recognized “comfort zone” for prices, enabling a balance of interests between upstream and downstream. From the cost side, the industry’s fully allocated costs currently show clear differentiation: for leading salt-lake lithium extraction enterprises, costs are around 40k yuan per ton; for domestic high-quality hard-rock lithium mines, costs are about 60k to 70k yuan per ton; while for Jiangxi lithium mica mines, costs are 80k to 120k yuan per ton.

“Enterprises that purchase lithium concentrate and then smelt it have higher costs, close to the current market price.” People in the lithium ore industry believe that a lithium carbonate price of 150k yuan per ton can cover cash costs for more than 90% of capacity across the industry. While leading companies’ gross profit margins are attractive, it can also lower the proportion of lithium costs in downstream battery companies, ensuring the economic viability of projects such as energy storage.

Against the dual backdrop of the price comfort zone and tight supply-demand balance, the competitive landscape in the lithium carbonate industry may shift from “everyone profits from the general rise” to “the survival of the fittest.” Resource endowments and cost-control ability become a company’s core competitiveness. Resource-based companies with quality resources and salt-lake lithium extraction companies with cost advantages are expected to strengthen further in the reshuffle.

People from lithium ore companies say that an equilibrium price around 150k yuan per ton will push the industry to bid farewell to blind capacity expansions and pivot toward high-quality development paths characterized by resource security, technology-driven cost reductions, and coordinated collaboration across the industrial chain. In the future, leading companies with high resource self-sufficiency and good cost control will continue to increase their market share, while small and mid-sized high-cost production capacity will gradually exit, further raising industry concentration.