I've noticed something interesting while looking at on-chain data over the past few days. The Bitcoin MVRV Z-Score is currently at -2.28, which has become more extreme than the previous bear lows of 2018 and 2022. That's not a trivial signal.

The thing is, this indicator measures the gap between market value and realized value. When it becomes so negative, it suggests that prices are diverging from the actual on-chain value. According to analysts, the massive influx of institutional capital via ETFs has changed the game by increasing baseline costs, making the MVRV Z-Score more sensitive to price movements.

What’s interesting is that the MVRV Z-Score alone doesn’t tell the whole story. The NUPL indicator, which measures market sentiment, is at 0.197, remaining in a relatively hopeful zone. During the true capitulations (December 2018, March 2020, November 2022), this indicator plunged into negative territory. We’re not there yet.

So even if the MVRV Z-Score data appears extreme, the overall sentiment suggests we haven't reached the true panic zone yet. Most holders are still in profit on paper. We’d need the MVRV Z-Score to rise above -1.5 with BTC now around 66.6k to get a real technical exit signal. Stay tuned.