Will the US economy outlook worsen? The US credit risk spread hits a new high since April 30, 2025.

K-LinePoet

2026-03-28 16:45:36

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As of March 13, 2026, data shows that the yield spread between U.S. CCC-rated high-yield bonds and 10-year Treasury yields reached 9.33%, a new high since April 30, 2025, indicating an increased risk of corporate bankruptcies, which is an important signal of deteriorating economic prospects.

(Data source: Tonghuashun (300033) iFinD)

The credit spread refers to the difference in yields between high-yield bonds and Treasury bonds, reflecting the market’s expectations of future default risks for companies.

When the economic situation is good and businesses are operating smoothly, the risk of corporate bankruptcies decreases, bond yields also drop, and the credit risk spread narrows; conversely, when the economy is in recession and companies are on the brink of bankruptcy, corporate bond yields rise sharply, and the credit risk spread widens significantly.

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