Weekend! Major news from the Strait of Hormuz! Israel has deployed over 50 fighter jets!

The Strait of Hormuz has new developments!

On March 28 local time, Thai Prime Minister Anutin stated that Thailand has reached an agreement with Iran regarding the passage of its oil tankers through the Strait of Hormuz. Just a day earlier, Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar announced that Iran would allow Malaysian vessels to pass through the Strait of Hormuz.

Morgan Stanley estimates that from March 23 to March 26, as many as 12 vessels passed through the strait. This is a significant increase compared to the previous record from March 19 to March 22, when only three vessels were recorded.

UN Secretary-General Guterres’ spokesperson Dujarric said on the 27th that Guterres has established a special working group on the situation in the Strait of Hormuz, with the core task of developing and proposing a specialized technical mechanism to facilitate the transportation of fertilizers and related raw materials, alleviating the impact on humanitarian needs and agricultural production.

Regarding the latest news on Iran, according to Xinhua, the Israel Defense Forces stated on the 28th that the Israeli military carried out strikes on nuclear facilities and weapons bases in three regions of Iran using over 50 aircraft on the 27th. The statement said that the operation included three waves of strikes lasting several hours, targeting a heavy water plant in Arak, a special facility in Yazd used for producing explosive materials necessary for uranium enrichment, and a weapons production base.

The Houthi armed group in Yemen issued a statement through its controlled Masirah TV on the 28th, saying that the organization launched ballistic missiles at Israel early that morning, and the operations will continue until the aggression stops.

Thailand and Iran reach an agreement

According to Xinhua, Thai Prime Minister Anutin stated on the 28th that in response to the crisis of rising domestic oil prices caused by the situation in the Middle East, the Thai Ministry of Foreign Affairs has been actively communicating with relevant countries recently, and based on the current agreement reached with Iran, Thai oil tankers can safely pass through the Strait of Hormuz.

Anutin held a media briefing at the Prime Minister’s Office that day to explain the government’s measures to address oil price fluctuations. He stated that the government will focus on advancing diplomatic coordination, energy security, commodity price control, and safeguarding people’s livelihoods in the coming period, and called on the public to jointly implement energy-saving measures to cope with the situation.

Thai Foreign Minister Sihasak stated that Thailand has proposed to hold a special ASEAN foreign ministers’ meeting to discuss plans to ease tensions. Thailand currently still has stable oil reserves, and the government is actively seeking additional energy sources through diplomatic channels.

Just a day earlier, on the 27th local time, Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar announced that Iran would allow Malaysian vessels to pass through the Strait of Hormuz.

Currently, the global market is closely monitoring the developments in the Strait of Hormuz for signs of interruption or de-escalation of the situation, as the ongoing tensions between the U.S. and Iran continue to cause fluctuations in energy prices.

On Thursday, Eastern Time, U.S. President Trump stated in a cabinet meeting that Iran has allowed 10 oil tankers to pass through the Strait of Hormuz. He claimed that this was a “great gift” from Iran to demonstrate their sincerity in negotiations. However, foreign media reported, citing Iranian sources, that Trump’s recent comments about Iran’s “great gift” were political theatrics lacking factual basis. The source indicated that vessels permitted to pass through the Strait of Hormuz must follow “safe routes” established by Iran, establishing direct contact with Iran and coordinating in advance regarding their vessels and cargo transit procedures.

Morgan Stanley stated that they observed three oil tankers sailing out of the strait on March 26 and raised their estimate of the number of vessels that passed the previous day from zero to two. Based on the situation over the past few days, Morgan Stanley estimates that up to 12 vessels have passed through the strait from March 23 to March 26. This is a notable increase compared to the record of three vessels passing from March 19 to March 22.

According to shipping industry media Lloyd’s List, since March 8, 10 non-shadow fleet oil tankers have been tracked passing through this chokepoint, with trade related to Iran dominating the current vessels.

Iran: Oil exports from Khark Island are proceeding normally

According to CCTV News, on the 28th local time, Iranian Parliament National Security and Foreign Policy Committee spokesman Ibrahim Rezaei stated that the security situation on Khark Island is stable, daily life is normal, and oil exports are proceeding smoothly.

Rezaei visited Khark Island that day with some members of the Iranian Parliament’s National Security and Foreign Policy Committee and warned that any attack on Khark Island would be met with a resolute response from Iran.

Khark Island is located in the northwestern Persian Gulf, about 25 kilometers from the Iranian coast, and is Iran’s largest crude oil export base, with 90% of Iran’s crude oil exported from here.

On the 27th local time, a senior Iranian security official warned that if the U.S. launches ground operations in the Middle East, Iran will take reciprocal actions in response. The official stated that once the U.S. enters the ground combat phase, Iran will have the corresponding authority to retaliate against the sources of threats.

He also emphasized that any military action by “hostile forces” in the Strait of Hormuz could lead to the complete closure of the strait, with no limitations on the duration of the closure.

The Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps stated on the 27th that the Strait of Hormuz is currently closed, and any attempts to pass through the strait will be met with severe retaliation.

The statement also said that any vessels traveling to and from “ports of U.S. and Israeli hostile forces and their supporters,” regardless of their destination or route, are prohibited from passing.

According to Xinhua citing Iranian media on the 27th, the Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps announced that three container ships attempting to pass through the Strait of Hormuz were turned back that day.

The announcement said that President Trump falsely claimed that “the Strait of Hormuz is open,” and that three container ships of different nationalities attempted to enter the designated channel for licensed vessels but turned back after receiving warnings from the Revolutionary Guard Navy.

The announcement stated that the Strait of Hormuz is now closed, prohibiting any vessels “coming from or going to” the ports of U.S. and Israeli allies from passing through, and any attempts to cross the Strait of Hormuz will face “severe measures.”

Short-term pressure on the energy market is unlikely to ease

The New York Times pointed out that while Iran has allowed a small number of vessels to pass through the Strait of Hormuz, this is unlikely to alleviate the pressure and risks facing the shipping and energy markets in the short term.

The report stated that since the outbreak of war, Iran has continued to leverage its control over the Strait of Hormuz. Due to fears of Iranian attacks, shipping operators have ceased sending vessels through the strait. This has led to a sharp reduction in the supply of energy products, causing oil and gas prices to soar. The supply shortage has disrupted economies in many countries, especially in Asia.

Recently, Iran indicated it would allow vessels from specific countries to pass through the strait, most of which are apparently heading to Asia. However, Iran continues to threaten vessels associated with Israel, the U.S., and their allies.

Currently, the shipping volume through the strait remains at historically low levels. According to estimates from S&P Global Market Intelligence, nearly 3,000 vessels are waiting nearby to pass through the strait. Before the outbreak of war, about 120 vessels passed through daily.

Every day that oil tankers are idle exacerbates the pressure on the global economy. Shipping and energy analysts stated that Iran’s policy of allowing a small number of approved vessels to pass through the strait will not alleviate the current pressure.

Maritime data company Kpler’s trade risk analyst Anna Subasic stated, “We have not seen meaningful growth.” According to data from Kpler’s MarineTraffic division, 28 vessels passed through the narrow waterway in the seven days ending Wednesday. This figure is higher than the 20 vessels that passed in the seven days ending March 18.

Kpler reported that since the outbreak of war, 18 vessels in the Middle East have been attacked. Shipping operators claim that there is currently insufficient certainty regarding the risks of passage.

For shipping companies, a peace or ceasefire agreement directly reached by the warring parties would be the most reassuring. However, even so, it may take over a month for oil tankers to return to pre-war passage frequencies, which means that the pressure on the oil and gas markets may continue for some time.

“The congestion level may delay or prevent transportation volumes from returning to pre-war levels for weeks,” analyst Jack Kennedy said.

Proofread by: Wang Wei