"GateLive Roundtable Discussion" Episode 6: Crypto Winter or Turning Point? Analyzing the Market Crash and Potential Recovery in the Past Week

“Gate Live Roundtable Discussion” is a Chinese-language crypto roundtable interview program created by Gate Live, airing promptly every Tuesday at 8:00 PM, focusing on the most discussed industry topics of the moment. The program periodically invites core practitioners and frontline observers from blockchain, Web3, DeFi, Ethereum ecosystem, stablecoins, as well as compliance and policy fields, to join in deep discussions in the live broadcast room.

The roundtable emphasizes a relaxed, open, and authentic dialogue atmosphere, exploring market trends, industry disagreements, and key variables from multiple perspectives, helping viewers form clearer, more rational judgments amid complex market narratives.

This episode’s theme: Crypto Winter or Turning Point? Analyzing the Market Crash and Potential Recovery in the Past Week

Guest speakers: well-known figures in the Chinese crypto community — “Leading to Wealth, Must Be Rich,” 0x31ad.sun, and Houshanren

This program’s content is for informational exchange and opinion discussion only, and does not constitute any investment advice.

(This content is compiled from the live replay, with text assisted and appropriately edited by AI. For the full content, please copy the link: https://www.gate.com/zh/live/video/c701fb902f1d376b47198eb87eb9c129)

Host Jesse:

Hello everyone, good evening! Welcome to GateLive Roundtable. I am your host, Jesse.

Every Tuesday at 8 PM, we focus here on hot topics in the crypto market.

In the first week of February 2026, the crypto market experienced a severe crash. Bitcoin has plummeted over 50% from its October 2025 high of around $126,000, briefly touching $60,000, a 16-month low; Ethereum fell below $2,000; altcoins generally suffered heavy losses, with the global crypto market cap evaporating over $2 trillion. Market panic over the “crypto winter” has reignited.

But amidst extreme volatility, there are often opportunities for calm observers to think: fear and greed indices have fallen into single digits, miner cost lines form invisible support, institutional and national players are quietly entering, and regulatory frameworks are advancing—do these signals suggest a brewing turning point?

Tonight, we are honored to invite three industry veterans to analyze these events in depth and help viewers identify opportunities amid chaos. They are: “Leading to Wealth, Must Be Rich,” 0x31ad.sun, and Houshanren.

Welcome, three experts! Looking forward to your insights. Let’s start with brief introductions.

“Leading to Wealth, Must Be Rich”:

Hello everyone, I’m Shao Ge, a host at Gate Square. I mainly focus on the secondary market, analyzing Bitcoin, Ethereum, as well as US stocks, gold, and silver. My live streams mainly deal with intraday contracts and short-term trading, also paying attention to some mid- to long-term mainstream coin spot opportunities. Welcome to follow Shao Ge.

0x31ad.sun:

Hi everyone, I’m 0x31ad.sun. I mainly observe projects and conduct research, especially interested in early alpha opportunities. I go by the same name across the internet. If you’re interested or see my content, please give me a follow.

Houshanren:

Good evening everyone, I’m Houshanren. I’ve been in this industry for five or six years, a seasoned veteran. My interests are broad—on-chain data, macro analysis, candlestick techniques, teaching, etc. I’m also a regular at Gate Roundtable and have participated often before. If you want to connect more, follow me; I go by the same name on all platforms.

Jesse:

Thanks again to all three for being here. Let’s get straight into today’s discussion.

First question, and what everyone cares most about: Why did Bitcoin crash to $60,000 within just a week? Is this collapse mainly driven by macro factors (like geopolitical tensions), policy directions (such as Trump’s nomination of the Fed Chair), or more by internal crypto factors (like high leverage liquidations, ETF fund outflows)?

“Leading to Wealth, Must Be Rich”:

Regarding the first question, since January 31, the market has entered a rapid decline phase. Geopolitical impacts, mainly the US-Iran conflict, played a role. But more so, it feels like the market has been constantly fed smoke screens, releasing tension. The US won’t easily get involved in war, so I believe the conflict won’t truly escalate, and it’s not the core issue. We also don’t want to delve too much into political topics.

As for policy, like the new Fed Chair nominee Trump proposed, they won’t take office for over 90 days. I think there’s no need to worry too much about that now. The main reason for the current crash isn’t whether the Fed will cut rates or by how much.

I believe the key reason is: the market is now somewhat distorted. Why?

2020 was the DeFi year, the official birth of DeFi. As an old hand, everyone knows what the market looked like back then—dominated by Bitcoin, Ethereum, and other application and mining tokens. At that time, projects needed to land first, then grow communities; only after the community data was large enough would they connect to centralized exchanges. That’s how many explosive tokens emerged.

Why is this bull run different from previous ones? Because in the past, many projects only listed on centralized exchanges after building solid applications, then they would see 5x, 10x, or even higher gains, creating a positive cycle for the secondary market.

Now, what is the so-called “community”? I interact on your platform, you airdrop tokens; I complete tasks, you airdrop again. I sell the airdrops, and the cycle continues.

The ultimate result: in 2025, tokens that perform well on exchanges are less than 1%; 99% of tokens peak at listing and then crash, with no recovery—just a one-way fall.

So, regardless of policy or whether funds are flowing in, there is definitely money in the market. Especially in North America, the ETF market still holds about $100 billion. So it’s not that the market has no money, but that the money has become smarter.

If you still want to play altcoins, I suggest you check out Gate’s Alpha Zone, Gate’s Web3 wallet, and various trading competitions.

I feel this big drop is a reshuffling opportunity. Now major exchanges are launching gold, silver, and US stock trading—an irreversible trend. Bitcoin and Ethereum are so volatile lately that users’ risk appetite is decreasing; they prefer more stable investments. Gold and stocks, with hundreds of years of history, are indeed safer choices.

This is also a form of “bloodsucking,” draining liquidity from the crypto space. But I see it as a good thing—it will stimulate healthy market interactions. If you’re not stable, with wild swings, I’ll vote with my feet. If you want to compete for liquidity, then whether it’s Bitcoin or Ethereum, in the next 5, 10, or 20 years—even without explosive growth phases—they will at least have ups and downs like US stocks, making liquidity better.

That’s all I’ll share. Thank you.

0x31ad.sun:

Alright, Shao Ge has explained in detail. My view is that this decline isn’t caused by a single factor, but mainly by internal crypto issues. I think the current market structure has problems. The real trigger for this drop is actually the market’s own “internal wounds.”

From 2024 to 2025, the rally I see isn’t about gradual accumulation or healthy slow growth. It was triggered by ETF approvals, with passive buy expectations inflated. Then, large funds used perpetual contracts and structured products with leverage to bet on the bull run.

Throughout this period, many projects issued tokens, looking lively but with poor liquidity. Those projects’ tokens kept falling, eroding confidence in new assets, creating a bubble that’s easily popped.

After the price rose to around 120,000, there wasn’t much turnover; liquidity was superficial. Once the market started falling, high leverage dominoes toppled, spiraling into a downtrend.

Interestingly, this time, not only retail investors are shaken out, but also medium-sized institutions that thought their leverage was safe. They believed their risk was manageable but didn’t realize how dangerous the structure was. When爆仓 happens, liquidity quickly evaporates, causing a cascade of liquidations.

In summary: macro uncertainties, political noise, and a market full of leverage and liquidity mismatches have caused this bubble to burst.

That’s my take.

Houshanren:

First, macro-wise, this year’s macro environment has been unfriendly. Trump’s policies have been consistently bearish macro-wise. The key point is that geopolitical risks triggered risk asset sell-offs. Remember, in crypto, all assets are risk assets now.

On January 30, Trump announced the nomination of Jerome Powell as Fed Chair. Powell is a hawk, advocating for tightening, aiming to deflate global assets and create dollar scarcity—basically, a forced dollar tightening to induce market contraction. It’s a big power game, hard to detail here.

Then came high-leverage liquidations. The recent waterfall liquidation wasn’t huge—only about $2.5 billion on that day. Last October 11, liquidations hit $20 billion, a similar drop, but with ten times the amount liquidated. Many high-leverage positions were already wiped out back then.

I checked on-chain data; ETF buying has been ongoing these days. So, a small rebound is understandable after negative news.

That’s all from me, host.

Jesse:

Second question: Let’s focus on market sentiment. The fear and greed index has fallen to 8–18, hitting extreme lows not seen since some phases of the 2022 bear market. From your perspectives, how does current market sentiment compare to that of the 2022 bear market?

“Leading to Wealth, Must Be Rich”:

Looking at the historical levels of the fear and greed index, this is the 8th time it’s fallen below 10. In the previous 7 times, it usually broke below 10 within the same week, and at most, after a second bottom, it rebounded violently. Usually, this lasts about two months.

So I tell my community: when the index drops this low, market attention, media buzz, Google and Twitter mentions all decline, indicating that few people are paying attention now—the market has entered a “break” phase, just waiting for it to “stand” again.

As for similarities and differences with 2022: both times, liquidity was extremely tight, and big capital was fleeing at all costs. Over the past half-month or month, ETFs have been net outflows. With so much capital fleeing, it’s no wonder the market drops. When supply exceeds demand, prices fall; when demand exceeds supply, prices rise—simple logic.

The difference is that in 2022, the decline was mainly triggered by Fed rate hikes. The 2021 bull market was crazy, and the 2022 bear was brutal. After over a year of fermentation, the capital and narratives that needed to enter had reached a critical point; major players had to cash out and exit.

This market still has growth potential, but regulation is tightening, and centralized platforms are pursuing compliance and survival, shifting from rapid growth to industry stability. The growth dividends are different now. If you still think you can pick any concept coin and make 10x or 100x in a bull run, that’s probably unrealistic now.

I believe this industry’s existence is justified. We need to think more, set rules, and develop healthily. How to attract users who truly stay? If you only cultivate “scalpers”—those who farm airdrops and then dump—you’ll find that 2021 and now are completely different markets.

In this cycle, the new users and funds attracted by Web3 efforts may leave after a while, making it hard for us to move forward.

0x31ad.sun:

I think the current market sentiment’s fear level is not comparable to 2022. Back then, Luna collapsed, followed by FTX’s crisis—black swan events that hit the entire industry hard. Everyone wondered if the industry was finished.

In 2022, the whole market was extremely panicked, with very low trading volume, everyone hesitant to enter, funds contracting, and projects slowing down development.

This round of fear isn’t about “the industry is over,” but about temporary pessimism. Many projects launched with high valuations, few truly valuable assets, and a bubble that’s quite inflated.

But if you’re on-chain, you’ll see active addresses are still many, stablecoins’ total supply is growing, and liquidity remains on-chain. The fear is mainly about overvaluation—people are afraid to buy.

Tracks like AI and RWA are still developing, and regulation is relatively relaxed compared to 2022’s full crackdown. I see this as a potential starting point for the next big surge.

Retail investors are panicked, but it’s just a lack of action. Given a chance, they’ll buy aggressively. Panic is just a form; retail funds haven’t left the space, and institutions are watching.

So I prefer to see this as a “wait-and-see” period. That’s my personal view.

Houshanren:

I want to add: in 2022, when the fear and greed index hit single digits, Bitcoin was around $20,000; now, even with a similar index level, BTC is near $70,000. That’s a big difference.

The similarity is that the index is very low, and both times there was panic selling, massive liquidations, and cascade effects. But 2022 was late in the bear market; now, Bitcoin has dropped about 50% from the top—more like a deep correction after breaking through a high.

On-chain data shows long-term holders haven’t decreased significantly. So despite the low fear index, there’s no sense of total crypto doom like in 2022.

Some people might have taken profits at their target prices. The fear now is different in nature from that in 2022.

Jesse:

Third question: Regarding “future paths.” Currently, Bitcoin is near the miner cost line, with intense bullish and bearish battles around $60,000–$70,000. Do you think the current support levels and miner cost line have formed a technical bottom? Considering worst-case vs. best-case scenarios, how might the market evolve?

Houshanren:

Bitcoin is oscillating around 68,000. The shutdown price for miners doesn’t seem to have been reached yet; miners probably aren’t at a loss. Whether this support and miner cost line form a technical bottom—my technical analysis isn’t deep, but there’s a saying: “If it’s the bottom, it won’t rebound; if it rebounds, it’s not the bottom.”

Looking back at 2022, when the fear index hit single digits, the market was sideways for a long time before a rally. Now, a V-shaped reversal is rare. I don’t think this is the bottom; there’s no bottom structure.

Worst-case scenario: if this isn’t the bottom, the fear index might stay at single digits for a long time. Institutions and big players are still watching. If the Fed continues tightening liquidity, it could be bad—US stocks might crash too. Although Bitcoin and stocks/gold aren’t as tightly correlated now, liquidity still influences both. If stocks crash, imagine the impact—this decline could become much deeper.

Optimistically: institutions might coordinate to rescue the market. It could be a deep correction within a bull phase. When the bottom will come depends on various signals.

0x31ad.sun:

Currently, the $60,000–$70,000 range is quite special. It’s near the miner cost, and also around where ETFs have been entering. Plus, market sentiment at this level has prompted many to build positions.

This creates intense bullish-bearish battles. Whether it’s the bottom—probably not yet. Historically, markets rarely bounce sharply after hitting the cost line; more often, they oscillate violently, with fake breakouts and emotional swings.

Worst case: external macro deterioration, liquidity tightening, leading to prolonged sideways movement, with prices repeatedly bouncing in this range.

Best case: ETF stops outflows, begins short-term inflows; macro improves; value investing resumes; the market bottoms out and moves upward steadily.

Regardless of optimism or pessimism, it’s not ideal to go all-in now. Better to wait until the trend is clearer and easier to judge. That’s my personal advice.

“Leading to Wealth, Must Be Rich”:

First, is the market bottomed? Short to medium term—within a week or two—there’s definitely a rebound demand. But long-term, indicators haven’t yet reached the bottom threshold. Historically, in every bear market, the miner cost line must be broken for a true bottom.

Miner cost can be a reference; gradually accumulating spot positions is fine, but leverage is unnecessary. If you want to position, only do so with spot, in tranches.

Market evolution: I expect, in the short term—around the Spring Festival—if the market doesn’t continue to decline with volume, it should roughly hold around the recent low of 59,800.

If there’s a second bottom, that’s a good entry point. During the most unstable times, no need to stubbornly hold onto Bitcoin; consider more stable assets like US stocks or gold and silver. Gate has launched stock and gold/silver contracts, which are safer options.

While we’re crypto traders, we should also recognize Web3’s role in future free finance. It’s been embraced by Wall Street’s major capital. If we don’t have the vision of giants, at least we see many giants entering this space. When they commit, we should position ourselves now—future gains will be promising.

No matter how bad the market, as an OG, I remain hopeful and optimistic about Web3. I share this hope with all Web3 family members.

Jesse:

Thanks to all three guests for tonight’s insightful sharing! We’ve covered the causes of the crash, sentiment comparisons, and potential future directions. Although the short-term market is harsh, history shows that extreme fear often signals long-term opportunities.

Remember: investing is a game of cognition. Especially in crypto, staying calm and continuously learning are key to surviving cycles.

Thanks to everyone watching. Don’t forget to follow GateLive’s official broadcast. See you next time!