ETH is caught in a liquidation squeeze: falling below 2,848 or breaking above 3,132 are both dangerous signals

2026-01-23 18:31:34

According to the latest data, Ethereum is currently in a delicate position. If ETH falls below $2,848, the cumulative long liquidation strength on mainstream CEXs will reach $953 million; conversely, if it breaks above $3,132, the short liquidation strength will reach $446 million. ETH’s current price is $2,991.88, precisely between these two key levels, facing risks of both sides being liquidated.

Liquidation Data Overview

Price Level	Liquidation Direction	Liquidation Strength	Risk Assessment
$2,848	Longs	$953 million	Greater downside risk
$3,132	Shorts	$446 million	Relatively less upward pressure
$2,991.88	Current Price	-	In a risk zone

This data comparison reveals an important insight: the liquidation pressure on longs is 2.1 times that on shorts. This means that if ETH declines, the resulting chain liquidation scale will far exceed that during upward movements.

Market Sentiment Insights

From related news, the current market sentiment is cautious:

Continuous net outflows from CEXs: Over the past 24 hours, mainstream CEXs have net outflows of 38,600 ETH, with Binance outflows of 33,900 ETH, indicating holders are withdrawing coins.
US spot ETF outflows persist: On January 21, net outflow of $238.55 million, with major funds like BlackRock and Fidelity reducing their holdings.
Whales are shorting: Aggressive traders continue to increase ETH short positions, with unrealized profits exceeding $15 million, showing professional funds are bearish.

These data points collectively reflect that market participants are gradually reducing their risk exposure.

Key Support and Resistance Levels

Based on technical analysis, recent support is in the $2,949–$2,980 range, which provides a buffer of over $100 from the long liquidation point at $2,848. However, if support is broken, the downward acceleration could be rapid.

On the upside, recent resistance is at $3,346–$3,439, about $200 above the short liquidation point at $3,132. This indicates that breaking upward is more challenging.

Possible Future Trends

From the current data structure, ETH is more likely to test key support levels downward rather than break resistance upward. If it drops below $2,949, the $953 million long liquidation could trigger a waterfall effect. Conversely, breaking above $3,132 to trigger short liquidations requires overcoming more technical resistance and market psychological pressure.

However, it’s also worth noting that the withdrawal behavior of holders, while indicating short-term bearishness, could also be a preparation for future upward movement. Whale short positions are often short-term strategies and do not necessarily reflect long-term direction.

Summary

ETH is currently in a high-risk position—only $143 (about 4.8%) away from the downside liquidation point, and $140 (about 4.7%) from the upside liquidation point. This asymmetric liquidation pressure, combined with the current weak market sentiment, suggests that downside risks are more concerning.

The key is whether the recent support at $2,949 can hold. If it does, a rebound may occur; if it fails, the $953 million liquidation pressure could push the price quickly down to test $2,848. For traders, both levels warrant close attention.

ETH-0,15%

This page may contain third-party content, which is provided for information purposes only (not representations/warranties) and should not be considered as an endorsement of its views by Gate, nor as financial or professional advice. See Disclaimer for details.