As Japan’s yield no longer serves merely as an interest rate signal but is interpreted as a policy risk indicator, the flow of market funds also changes accordingly. Gold faces absorption pressure, while Bitcoin reacts to it, forming an intriguing contrast.
(Background: Arthur Hayes’ latest article: Why will Bitcoin underperform gold and the NASDAQ in 2025?)
(Additional context: PlanB: After Bitcoin’s disconnection from US stocks and gold, it has experienced a 10x rally)

Table of Contents

• Gold absorbs pressure as Japanese yields rise, Bitcoin faces headwinds
• Japan becomes the focal point of global policy pressure
• If BOJ intervenes, gold may enter a consolidation phase
• Bitcoin may find room for recovery after pressure eases
• Summary

Delphi Digital, an independent research firm focused on cryptocurrencies and digital assets, recently posted on X that the rapid rise in Japan’s 10-year government bond yield (JP10Y) is becoming a key source of pressure in global financial markets. This change not only boosts gold prices but also continues to pressure Bitcoin performance.

The analyst @that1618guy believes that the market no longer views rising yields as a normal tightening signal but as a symbol of policy credibility and balance sheet risk; if the Bank of Japan (BOJ) intervenes, the price trends of gold and Bitcoin could react very differently.

Gold absorbs pressure as Japanese yields rise, Bitcoin faces headwinds

In a typical monetary tightening environment, rising long-term bond yields tend to suppress gold performance because the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets increases. However, @that1618guy points out that the current market shows a clear structural change. While Japan’s 10-year government bond yield is climbing rapidly, gold prices are not under pressure—in fact, they are rising in tandem—indicating a shift in how the market interprets yields.

Analysis across different time scales shows that the short-term correlation between gold and JP10Y remains volatile but increasingly stays in positive territory; the medium-term correlation is rising together, and the long-term correlation has stabilized as positive. This suggests that rising yields are no longer seen as a sign of normalizing the economy but as reflecting policy pressure and increased risk, making gold a safe haven to absorb this pressure.

Meanwhile, Bitcoin’s performance contrasts sharply. The analysis shows that during the same period, Bitcoin maintains a negative correlation with JP10Y, especially on longer time scales, with Bitcoin remaining under pressure as Japan’s yields rise. The analyst notes that for Bitcoin to experience a more sustained rebound, the rise in Japanese yields must first cool down, which would theoretically also be reflected in the gold market.

Japan becomes the focal point of global policy pressure

The analyst believes that Japan has become a key source of market stress due to its long-term policy background. Statistically, JP10Y is currently about 3.65 standard deviations above its long-term mean, an extremely rare deviation. For Japan, which has been under yield curve control (YCC) for over a decade, such a trend strongly signals that policy anchors are loosening.

What is even more noteworthy is not the yield level itself but the speed of its rise. Rapid, nearly vertical yield movements turn simple rate adjustments into balance sheet events. Japan’s banking system holds long-term government bonds extensively and uses them as assets and collateral. When yields spike sharply, bond prices fall, collateral values shrink, and funding conditions tighten, exerting significant systemic pressure.

This explains why BOJ interventions tend to occur early, when market stress begins to show in data, rather than waiting until yields normalize. For BOJ, any move involving multiple standard deviations and accelerating changes is enough to justify intervention.

BOJ intervention could lead gold into a consolidation phase

Regarding future policy directions, @that1618guy believes that once the BOJ credibly stabilizes long-term yields, the current market sentiment driven by Japanese pressure will ease. This does not mean gold’s trend will immediately reverse but that it may lose some of its upward acceleration.

From a technical perspective, gold remains in a long-term uptrend, but recent momentum shows signs of slowing. Prices continue to rise, but the relative strength index (RSI) struggles to reach new highs, indicating cautious buying. The analyst suggests that this structure aligns with a market that remains bullish but heavily relies on policy pressure for support. If BOJ’s intervention successfully reduces pressure premiums, gold prices are more likely to enter a consolidation or digestion phase rather than a trend reversal.

Bitcoin may find room for recovery after pressure eases

Compared to gold, Bitcoin reacts more directly to rising Japanese yields. The analysis indicates that although Bitcoin’s price has weakened amid the rising JP10Y and gold, the decline has not accelerated significantly; instead, signs of stabilization are emerging. This behavior aligns with a risk asset seeking a bottom under macro pressure.

If the BOJ intervenes effectively to curb long-term yield increases, Bitcoin’s response could differ markedly from gold. The analyst believes that as global liquidity conditions improve and Japanese tightening pressures diminish, Bitcoin has potential for recovery and upward movement. Under the current system, Bitcoin is not competing with gold as a safe haven but is waiting for pressure signals to subside to regain momentum.

Summary

Delphi Digital analyst @that1618guy points out that the key in the current market is not whether gold has peaked or whether the BOJ will act soon, but that the market has clearly started to view Japan’s 10-year government bond yield as a global pressure indicator. Gold is absorbing this pressure, while Bitcoin reacts accordingly; the divergence itself is an important signal.

As long as JP10Y continues to rise uncontrollably, gold remains reasonably strong, while Bitcoin may continue to face headwinds; once BOJ stabilizes long-term yields, gold’s upward pace may shift into a consolidation phase, and Bitcoin could have opportunities for recovery. Overall, Japan is becoming a critical window for observing how global markets price policy risks and balance sheet vulnerabilities.