Bitcoin's Hidden Signals: Is Relief Bounce on the Cards?

At $92.86K with a -2.43% dip in the last day, Bitcoin’s recent price action might look uninspiring on the surface. Yet beneath the numbers, two significant shifts are pointing toward something potentially bigger—and they’re happening simultaneously for the first time in weeks. Whether they translate into a sustained upside move remains to be seen, but the groundwork could be forming.

When Hodlers Return, Markets Listen

The most telling signal comes from long-term wallet behavior. Since late September, Bitcoin holders who stack coins for the long haul have gone quiet. But that changed this week. On December 26, these conviction buyers re-entered the market, adding 3,783.8 BTC to their positions—the first positive net position change in almost three months.

This matters because long-term holders don’t chase quick gains. They buy on conviction. Their return suggests something has shifted in how serious money is viewing Bitcoin’s prospects heading into 2026. These aren’t day traders chasing wicks; they’re the patient capital that tends to precede meaningful moves.

The Volume Signal That Could Confirm It All

On-Balance Volume (OBV) tells the story of whether buying or selling pressure is dominating. Through late December, Bitcoin’s price climbed while OBV lagged behind—a classic bearish divergence. That weakness showed up as failed breakouts, like the long wick rejection on December 26 that highlighted how fragile the rally attempt was.

But this week, OBV broke above the downtrend line that had been holding it back. That’s the green light indicator traders watch for. The real confirmation won’t come until OBV posts a higher high above the 1.58 million level—a mark that, if reached, could finally give Bitcoin’s price the conviction it’s been lacking.

The Price Levels That Matter

For Bitcoin to stage a genuine relief rally, it first needs to reclaim $90,840. This level has been acting as a brick wall since December 12, rejecting every bounce attempt. Until price clears it, upside moves look provisional.

If $90,840 breaks, the next meaningful resistance sits at $97,190—a level Bitcoin lost back in November. Beyond that lie $101,710 and $107,470, representing zones where past sellers are likely watching.

On the flip side, support at $86,915 (holding since December 19) is critical to defend. A break below that opens the door to $80,560—a painful scenario made riskier by thin year-end liquidity.

The Setup, Not the Confirmation

Here’s the catch: one signal alone doesn’t make a rally. OBV needs to follow through with that higher high confirmation. Hodlers need to keep accumulating, not reverse course. Both have to dance together, or the bounce fizzles.

Right now, the pieces are assembling. Long-term conviction is back. Volume indicators are flashing green flags. But Bitcoin still needs to prove it can break through $90,840 and sustain the move. Until that happens, every relief bounce feels temporary. The setup is intriguing—just not confirmed yet.