XRP Technical Outlook: Relief Rally Develops Inside Broader Downtrend

XRP remains within a well-defined descending channel after the sharp rejection from the $3.25–$3.66 macro supply zone (0.786–1 Fib). That rejection marked a distribution top, followed by sustained bearish continuation into the $1.77 macro demand region.

Recent price action shows XRP bouncing from the lower channel boundary, forming a short-term base with higher lows. Momentum has improved, though the higher-timeframe trend has not yet structurally reversed.

EMA Structure (Bearish Bias, Improving Short-Term Momentum)

20 EMA: 2.067
50 EMA: 2.076
100 EMA: 2.199
200 EMA: 2.319

XRP has reclaimed the 20 & 50 EMA, signaling short-term bullish momentum. However, price remains below the 100 & 200 EMA, keeping the medium- to long-term structure corrective.

The $2.20–$2.32 zone represents a major dynamic resistance cluster, where selling pressure is likely to increase.

Fibonacci & Price Structure

1 Fib: 3.661
0.786 Fib: 3.256
0.618 Fib: 2.938
0.5 Fib: 2.715
0.382 Fib: 2.492
0.236 Fib: 2.216
Fib 0: 1.770

XRP is currently trading just below the 0.236 Fib ($2.216), which now acts as a key structural pivot. Sustained acceptance above this level opens the door for a move toward $2.49–$2.72, where Fib resistance and EMA confluence align.

Failure to hold above $2.05–$2.00 would weaken the recovery structure and increase the risk of a retest of the $1.99–$1.77 macro demand zone.

Channel & Structural Context

Price remains capped beneath the descending channel resistance, confirming the current move as a counter-trend relief rally. A decisive breakout and acceptance above the channel, combined with reclaiming $2.32–$2.49, would be required to confirm a trend reversal.

Higher lows since the December bottom indicate early accumulation behavior, but structure remains corrective until major resistance is cleared.

RSI Momentum

RSI (14): 56

RSI is above neutral, reflecting improving momentum and increasing buyer participation. RSI near the upper mid-range suggests possible short-term consolidation near resistance before continuation.

📊 Key Levels

Resistance

$2.22 (0.236 Fib)

$2.32 (200 EMA / channel area)

$2.49 (0.382 Fib)

$2.72 (0.5 Fib)

Support

$2.05–$2.00 (short-term base)

$1.99 (range support)

$1.77 (Fib 0 / macro demand)

📌 Summary

XRP is attempting a structured recovery after defending the lower boundary of a descending channel. While short-term momentum has turned positive, the broader structure remains corrective unless price can reclaim $2.32–$2.49 with strength. Until that occurs, upside moves are likely to face heavy resistance, keeping XRP in a range-bound recovery phase.

$XRP