#美联储联邦公开市场委员会决议 the Fed's decision is coming, can Bitcoin break through?

$BTC is currently tossing back at $92,400, and even touched $94,000 during the session, and then it was pulled back. The market's eyes are focused on tomorrow - the Fed's interest rate decision on December 11, and everyone is betting on whether it can break the current deadlock this time.

The long and short factors are really entangled. On the positive side, the market generally expects the Fed to cut interest rates by 25 basis points and terminate balance sheet reduction, which is a big benefit for risk assets. Bitcoin can stabilize the $90,000 mark, indicating that there are still many takeovers. But the negative risk should not be underestimated - in case the Fed makes some hawkish remarks, the good news can instantly turn into a "good news" downward signal. The variable that the Bank of Japan may raise interest rates is also there, and once global liquidity tightens, the impact will be great. Another detail is that spot ETFs had a net outflow of $1.05 billion last week, buying was clearly in recession, and someone was taking profits at the end of the year, which were all suppressive factors.

Technically, Bitcoin has fallen into compression and shock, volatility has decreased, and it is about to take sides. The upper pressure level is very clear - 94,000 to 96,000 to $98,000, especially $94,000 is the dividing line between strength and weakness; The lower line of defense is between $89,000 and $87,500, and it is dangerous if the uptrend is broken.

If you want to lay out, here is a long-term short order idea for a 10% position: wait for the price to approach 96,000 or 98,000 before doing it, and keep an eye on the support near 91,900 in the middle, the main reference point is 89,000, and the extreme target can be seen around 78,500, but the specific take profit must be adjusted according to the real-time market.

The trading logic is also straightforward. If you can stand firm at $94,000 after the resolution, you can chase long positions with a small position, and the target is above $96,000, but you have to set a stop loss below $93,000; Conversely, if it falls below $89,000 or the Fed's hawkish performance leads to a dive, you can consider short-term, targeting around 87,400 and 85,000. In the next 24 to 48 hours, the market will be completely dominated by the Fed's decision and Powell's speech, and the volatility may be violent, so we have to guard against extreme market crashes. From now until the end of the year, the core focus is whether ETF funds can flow back in, and if the key support is really broken, it may have to be deeply corrected to the range of $82,000 to $78,000.

Remember - strict control of positions and flexibility are only reference ideas and do not constitute investment advice.