Bitcoin has three favourable information support stabilizing, while Ethereum's volatility surges taking over market dominance.

Compiled by: Tim,

Bitcoin stabilizes: benefiting from capital flow, policies, and macro tailwinds.

Bitcoin is once again approaching its all-time high, supported by a return of investor attention and a favorable macro environment.

In April, the spot Bitcoin ETF attracted nearly $3 billion in net inflows, and has attracted another $1.6 billion from May to now. Data from the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) shows that leveraged funds have not significantly increased short positions, indicating that most of the capital flow is directional betting rather than arbitrage trading.

At the policy level, relevant trends are increasingly heating up. New Hampshire has become the first state in the United States to pass a strategic Bitcoin reserve law, and 19 other states are also brewing similar bills. Meanwhile, Arizona is simultaneously advancing the legislative process in the areas of cryptocurrency custody and strategic reserves.

At the federal level, the Senate has blocked the “GENIUS Act,” a stablecoin regulation bill, but the cryptocurrency market remains unfazed, with market risk appetite still solid.

The macroeconomic environment has also sent supportive signals. Trump’s tariff policy revisions are seen as measures to promote growth, boosting the stock market and the dollar, while depressing the prices of gold and yen, and reducing the likelihood of recession. Market volatility has eased, and the VIX index has now fallen back to its average level over the past 12 months.

In short, Bitcoin is benefiting from three major factors: rising institutional demand, favorable policy environment, and a warming macro landscape. From the perspective of positioning, investors are actively going long.

Bitcoin is handing over the dominance of volatility to Ethereum.

The actual volatility of Bitcoin has rebounded by about 8 percentage points and has once again surpassed the $100,000 mark. Ethereum is even more eye-catching, with its actual volatility soaring to 90%, and in just two days, the price jumped by 30%. The short-term implied volatility of Bitcoin has slightly decreased, while the implied volatility of Ethereum has surged by 20 volatility points due to the dramatic price fluctuations.

The holding cost of Bitcoin has returned to neutral, but the holding cost of Ethereum has turned deeply negative, causing significant losses for Gamma sellers.

The Bitcoin rally only broke through the implied high point (at the 100,000 mark) once, while Ethereum achieved multiple upward breakthroughs. It seems that Bitcoin has handed over the momentum dominance to Ethereum, and whether this situation can continue remains to be seen.

The volatility term structure of Bitcoin is flattening, and the call option premium is re-emerging.

As the market rebounds, the skew curve flattens, and the premiums for call options rise.

The skew of Bitcoin’s volatility remains around 2-3 volatility points across the entire term structure, indicating a bullish capital flow betting on price increases, but the implied volatility level remains relatively low.

The volatility skew of Ethereum options has shown a downward trend, presenting a mild bearish inclination overall (except for the short-term contract side). If Ethereum can maintain its recent gains and effectively break through the $2800 level, the market may see a resurgence of sustained buying interest in call options. At this stage, investors remain cautious.

In the long run, Ethereum still has a gap to bridge compared to Bitcoin.

The front-end volatility spread has sharply widened.

ETH/BTC has surged 33% in the past week and is currently testing the key downward trend resistance level at 0.025. With Ethereum performing exceptionally well in realized volatility, its short-term volatility premium has skyrocketed to 35 volatility points.

At the same time, the far-end volatility spread remains around 15 volatility points, indicating a limited reaction. This phenomenon supports the view that the long-term VEGA (volatility risk exposure) may be suitable for selling at current levels.

Despite significant fluctuations in Ethereum, the volatility skew of short-term options contracts has further tilted towards the premium of put options. This indicates that the options market has not fully recognized this round of bullish trend.