Rate cuts are here—does that mean the crypto market will take off? Don’t get your hopes up just yet. Recently, some people are saying the Fed is about to inject liquidity, and the market should rise, right? Let me pour some cold water on that—even if rate cuts really happen, the crypto market might not last long. Why? Because the most critical issue right now is: where have all the retail investors gone? **The data doesn’t lie** Take the Korean market, for example. You know how crazy retail investors used to be over there—at its peak, they could pump in over $10 billion in a single day. Now? Daily trading volume has dropped to around $1 billion, a 90% evaporation. The “hot money” that used to chase rallies and inject energy into the market shows no signs of coming back. **How quiet is it?** New exchanges have launched, but trading volume isn’t picking up; some platforms that were preparing to go public have postponed their plans. The whole space feels like it’s gone into hibernation—even the hype calls have dwindled. **Policy tailwinds ≠ sustained rallies** Rate cuts do mean more money in the system, which in theory is good for investing. But here’s the problem—even if the tap is on (policy stimulus), if nobody’s there to catch the water (retail participation), what’s the point? Maybe there’ll be a short-term uptick, but without follow-up capital, it’ll quickly get slammed back down. Put simply, it’s like throwing a party and announcing unlimited drinks, but only a handful of people show up. No matter how good the music or how much free booze, an empty dance floor isn’t going to liven up. What the market really lacks isn’t news-driven hype, but actual money and enthusiasm. When you see a massive return of retail investors and a surge in on-chain activity, then it’s time to seriously talk about a bull market. For now? BTC, ETH, and other blue-chip coins might have to keep grinding at the bottom.

The market is about to face a major test again. Today, over $4 billion worth of options contracts are set to expire—among them, Bitcoin options amount to $3.36 billion, with strike prices concentrated at $91,000; Ethereum options total $648 million, with a key level at $3,050. The expiration of options at this scale often triggers significant short-term volatility. What’s even more concerning is the underlying trend signal. After reaching a historic high in 2025, Bitcoin turned into a loss position starting December 4, reminiscent of the market turning point in 2007. If cryptocurrencies continue to underperform before the end of the year, it could set off a chain reaction: the suppressed volatility in the stock market could be unleashed, and we might see a major mean reversion in 2026—Bitcoin retracing to $50,000, the S&P 500 dropping to 5,000 points, and safe-haven sentiment driving gold toward $5,000 per ounce. History never repeats itself exactly, but it often rhymes. Will this time be an exception?

The big boss managing $11 trillion has changed its stance. Vanguard just listed BlackRock’s spot Bitcoin ETF (IBIT) on its official website, and it will open trading to clients tomorrow. Keep in mind, this company was notoriously tough before—other firms listed Bitcoin ETFs a while ago, but Vanguard stubbornly refused to budge. This time, it’s not just Bitcoin. More ETFs and fund products related to BTC, ETH, XRP, SOL, and other crypto assets will gradually be made available. In other words, they’ve essentially lifted the ban on crypto assets across the board. Here are the numbers: Vanguard covers over 50 million brokerage accounts and manages over $11 trillion in assets. Even if only a small portion of that money flows into Bitcoin through ETFs, the long-term inflow could be quite significant. The even more important change is psychological. As one of the top two asset management giants in the world (on the same level as BlackRock), Vanguard has always been one of the last stubborn “anti-crypto” holdouts in traditional finance. Now that even Vanguard is shifting, the signal is clear—mainstream financial institutions have taken another big step toward accepting Bitcoin. Short-term prices may still be affected by macro environment and market sentiment fluctuations, but from a narrative perspective, this is a big deal. It’s as if another giant on par with BlackRock has officially entered the arena.