Gate 廣場|3/4 今日話題: #美伊局势影响
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美伊衝突持續升級,霍爾木茲海峽陷入事實性封鎖,伊拉克部分原油生產受影響。能源供應再度緊張,通脹預期抬頭,股市與大宗商品市場波動加劇。
💬 本期熱議:
1️⃣ 你關注到了哪些足以撼動市場的戰爭新進展?
2️⃣ 能源、航運、國防補給、避險資產(黃金/BTC)都受到了哪些影響?
3️⃣ 當前有哪些值得關注的多空機會?
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📅 3/4 15:00 - 3/6 12:00 (UTC+8)
剛出爐的AAII指數散戶投資者極度悲觀,美股將在中美貿易衝突中震蕩上行
本週AAII指數,散戶投資者看空比例暴升到46.1%,淨看多比例快降爲-12.4%;
同時,VIX指數在高位,有回落需求;市場參與度在中位;
這將驅動美股 $SPY $Q ,易漲難跌;
10月31日APEC會議,中美元首將會面,屆時就是利空落地;
結合10月29日的降息,和12月10日的大概率降息,11月行情值得期待!
所以APEC前這一兩周內,逢低買入優質或熱門標的將在11月帶來不錯的收益;
美股熱門板塊,稀土、量子、核能,大跌時分批買, $MP $RGTI $OKLO
加密幣, $BTC $ETH $SOL 將被美股帶動,在11月走完最後一波行情。
耐心布局。
The AAII Index shows retail investors are extremely pessimistic, suggesting $SPX will continue a choppy upward trend amid U.S.-China tensions.
The latest AAII survey shows the bearish sentiment among retail investors has surged to 46.1%, with the net bullish sentiment dropping to -12.4%.
Meanwhile, the VIX Index remains elevated and is likely to decline, while overall market participation is at a neutral level.
These conditions will drive U.S. stocks ( $SPY, $Q) to be easier to rise than to fall.
At the APEC meeting on October 31, the U.S. and Chinese presidents are expected to meet — which should mark the end of current geopolitical uncertainties.
Combined with the rate cut on October 29 and a highly probable rate cut on December 10, November’s market outlook looks promising.
Therefore, in the one to two weeks leading up to APEC, buying quality or trending stocks on dips could yield solid returns in November.
Hot sectors in U.S. stocks include rare earths, quantum computing, and nuclear energy — consider buying in batches during pullbacks ( $MP, $RGTI, $OKLO).
In crypto, $BTC, $ETH, and $SOL are likely to be lifted by SPX, potentially completing their final rally wave in November.
Be patient and position strategically.