5.1 Gold Intraday Market Analysis and Outlook Currently, the market has fully digested the negative factors of the Federal Reserve maintaining high interest rates and the postponement of rate cut expectations. Market sentiment is gradually improving, coupled with the ongoing rise in Middle Eastern geopolitical risk aversion, the US dollar index, and US Treasury yields all falling simultaneously. The convergence of multiple positive factors has driven gold prices to rebound strongly, effectively easing previous bearish pressure, and bullish sentiment in the market is gradually recovering. From a short-term technical perspective, gold prices have surged strongly from the low of 4510, successfully stabilizing above the 4600 level. The short-term trend shows a clear bullish pattern, but with continuous upward movement, various technical indicators have entered overbought territory. At this point, chasing long positions directly carries higher risk, so avoid blindly buying at high levels. Key intraday price levels are clearly defined: resistance focus is on the 4630-4650 range above, with further strong resistance at 4680-4700; support in the short term is centered around the 4590-4600 level, with secondary support at 4560-4570. Dandan's suggestion: If gold prices stabilize after pulling back to the 4590-4610 support zone, consider gradually accumulating long positions in batches, targeting above 4650, and seize the rebound opportunities within the range.

Global Top Institutions 2026 Bitcoin Second Half Forecast (Summary of Actual Research Reports) (Data as of April 30, 2026, Source: Investment Banks/Asset Management Official Reports, CoinDesk, Phemex, etc.) $BTC ‌ 1. Wall Street Investment Banks 2026 Year-End Target Prices (Core Bullish View for Second Half) - JPMorgan Chase: $170,000 (Fair Value); Logic for second half: continuous inflow of institutional funds, production costs provide strong support, 85% probability of a slow bull run. - Citi: $143,000 (Benchmark) / $189,000 (Optimistic); Second half: ETF capital + regulatory clarity (e.g., CLARITY Act) driving a breakthrough in Q4. - Standard Chartered: $100,000–$150,000; Rhythm: bottoming out in Q3 to build strength, ETF volume increase in Q4 to push prices higher. - Bernstein: $150,000; Judgment: this correction is the "weakest bear market," with no systemic risk, institutional capital extending the bull cycle. - Goldman Sachs: Cautious, characterized as "high-risk tech beta assets"; but acknowledges decreasing correlation with US stocks and increased institutional allocation, with a high probability of oscillating upward in the second half. 2. Top Asset Management/Research Institutions' Views - BlackRock: Long-term bullish, shifting from solely betting on BTC to full sector allocation; Ethereum may outperform BTC in the second half, but BTC remains the core holding. - Galaxy Research: High volatility in 2026, high probability of reaching new all-time highs; target $250,000 in 2027; second half: increased institutional holdings, volatility convergence, more stable trend. - VanEck: $250,000 (by end of 2026); Core factors: global central bank easing + continuous net inflows into ETFs. 3. Key Timeline and Catalysts for the Second Half (Institutional Consensus) 1. Q3 (July–September): Volatility bottoming out, institutional accumulation period; core support at $75,000–$80,000 (production costs + ETF holdings). 2. Q4 (October–December): Main rally window; Drivers: - Post-U.S. election regulatory expectations clarified; - Peak inflows into spot ETFs (monthly billions); - Institutional rebalancing + US stock market fund diversion. 4. Core Risks (Institutional Consensus) - Global inflation rebound → delayed Federal Reserve rate cuts; - Tightening of U.S. crypto regulations (e.g., tax hikes, ETF restrictions); - Macro black swan events (geopolitical conflicts, financial crises). 5. Institutional Consensus Conclusion Bitcoin in the second half of 2026: building strength in Q3, surging in Q4, with a high probability of ending the year in the $100,000–$150,000 range, driven by institutional funds, decreasing volatility, and clear signs of a slow bull market.