The Supreme Court found Trump’s tariffs illegal and canceled them. So what will Trump do? What could we see in the future? 👇
Trump may shift away from a broad tariff shock and move back to targeted tariff packages: Section 232 (national security tariffs), Section 301 (unfair trade practices), Section 201 (safeguard / sudden import surge protection), Section 122 (short-term, time-limited broad tariff). He may want to bring Congress into the game. He may want to make a regulation that clarifies IEEPA in a way that grants tariff authority, or he may want a new, clearer emergency tariff authority framework. Trump could toss the ball into Congress’s lap and, by saying “I want to protect America but Congress isn’t giving me authority,” he could pin the political cost on the legislature. Would Congress accept this? He may want to start 232/301 investigations and create a process threat (not tariffs immediately, but the pressure of “they’re coming”), and force deals through country based exemption/exception mechanisms. However, a President who has taken a hit from the Supreme Court may have his threats perceived by China or the EU as “it’s getting blocked in domestic law anyway, he’s bluffing,” and not be taken seriously. In that case, we may leave the peaceful Trump behind. What do you think? In my view, the most likely scenario: loudly pointing to the 232/301 headings + pilot moves in some sectors. In the medium term, chasing agreements through country-based exemption/exception bargaining, and pressuring Congress to clarify authority.
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The Supreme Court found Trump’s tariffs illegal and canceled them. So what will Trump do? What could we see in the future? 👇
Trump may shift away from a broad tariff shock and move back to targeted tariff packages: Section 232 (national security tariffs), Section 301 (unfair trade practices), Section 201 (safeguard / sudden import surge protection), Section 122 (short-term, time-limited broad tariff).
He may want to bring Congress into the game. He may want to make a regulation that clarifies IEEPA in a way that grants tariff authority, or he may want a new, clearer emergency tariff authority framework. Trump could toss the ball into Congress’s lap and, by saying “I want to protect America but Congress isn’t giving me authority,” he could pin the political cost on the legislature.
Would Congress accept this?
He may want to start 232/301 investigations and create a process threat (not tariffs immediately, but the pressure of “they’re coming”), and force deals through country based exemption/exception mechanisms.
However, a President who has taken a hit from the Supreme Court may have his threats perceived by China or the EU as “it’s getting blocked in domestic law anyway, he’s bluffing,” and not be taken seriously. In that case, we may leave the peaceful Trump behind.
What do you think?
In my view, the most likely scenario: loudly pointing to the 232/301 headings + pilot moves in some sectors. In the medium term, chasing agreements through country-based exemption/exception bargaining, and pressuring Congress to clarify authority.