Is the four-year cycle still valid? My personal view is that we are currently in a bear market phase:

The debate over the four-year Bitcoin cycle has never ceased. Some say that halving cycles will never change, while others believe that times are different now, and the structure has changed, rendering the cycle invalid.

But if we only look at historical data of time and price, we can conclude: as a time anchor, halving still makes sense today. After three halving events in 2012, 2016, and 2020, the price peaks all occurred between 12 and 18 months after the halving; meanwhile, the main decline phase of the bear market usually falls within the 24 to 30 months after halving:

Accumulation and consolidation phase: Months 0 - 6. Performance: Prices typically fluctuate within ±20% around the halving price. Pattern: The market is digesting selling pressure after the halving (miners need to sell more coins to cover costs).

Main upward surge: Months 6 - 18. Performance: The real surge usually begins around the 6th month after halving. Peak: The all-time high (ATH) in history typically occurs between the 12th and 18th months after halving.

Bubble burst and bear market: Months 18 - 30. After reaching the peak, the market enters a prolonged decline lasting about a year. Pattern: This phase usually lasts around 12 months.

Based on the halving cycle, we are currently at the 22nd month after halving. In the past three cycles, months 18-24 are usually the turning point into a bear market. The market has also proven this, as it is now experiencing a sharp decline. According to the halving cycle, the bottom is expected around October 2026, but this also depends on the extent of the decline and recovery.

The subsequent trend is most likely characterized by a prolonged bottom consolidation, with a rebound expected in the first to second quarter, followed by further decline until a cyclical bottom appears.