Has the honeymoon between #美SEC促进加密资产创新监管框架 Bitcoin and US stocks come to an end?

This year, the market has witnessed a surreal phenomenon: the S&P 500 has soared over 16% year-to-date, while Bitcoin has slumped 3%. The last time we saw such a divergence was back in 2014.

Even during past crypto winters, it was extremely rare for $BTC to decouple from risk assets. So what exactly is happening this time?

Looking back at this year, with the Trump administration’s regulatory easing and institutional money flowing in, Bitcoin once surged to a historic high of $126,000 in early October. But the good times didn’t last—after retail buying momentum faded, it tumbled over 10% in two months, wiping out hundreds of millions in market value, and is now hovering around $90,000.

Historically, Bitcoin and the stock market have tended to rise and fall together. This was especially true during the pandemic years—ultra-low interest rates fueled a rally in stocks, crypto, and all sorts of speculative assets.

But now, the script has changed. AI concept stocks are soaring, capital expenditures are skyrocketing, and investors are piling into the stock market, leaving Bitcoin out in the cold. In contrast, gold and silver have recently shined, coming within a hair’s breadth of their all-time highs.

Miller Tabak+ chief strategist Matt Maley put it bluntly: “Bitcoin is essentially a momentum-driven asset. For the past decade, when market sentiment was strong, it led the way. But this year, precious metals have been so eye-catching that they’ve siphoned off all the capital.”

There are clear signs that investor confidence is cooling. Bitcoin ETF inflows have slowed, long-term holders are starting to sell, and technical indicators have collectively weakened.

However, some voices offer a different view. FRNT Financial CEO Stéphane Ouellette in Toronto believes Bitcoin simply rose too fast and is now undergoing a normal correction. After all, over the past two years, it left the S&P 500 in the dust, partly thanks to favorable policies. “Now US stocks are playing catch-up, so it makes sense for Bitcoin to take a breather.”

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