Lately, I've been repeating one thing to everyone—don’t rush to call out prices; you need to watch where the trend is heading first. For example, the 21-day moving average is a key level. In my previous post, I marked BTC’s price points very clearly: 94000, and the 90 to 88 range.

A lot of loyal followers often ask me privately, “Everyone outside is calling for 130k, even 150k. What do you think?” I usually advise you to be more pragmatic. If you haven’t even figured out the road ahead, thinking about poetry and distant lands is just nonsense, isn’t it? The trend is still ambiguous, yet people are already drawing big targets—that’s not a very solid approach.

Last night, the market dropped to around 88, which was a decent stop, barely a passing grade. But today, I have to pour some cold water: this support can only save the day once. Why? Because my initial judgment that there would be support here wasn’t based on candlestick patterns, but on actual orders stacked at that level—there were a lot of pending buy orders, so naturally, there was buying volume. But now those orders have already been digested. Either we wait for new orders to pile up, or we have to look for another dense area.

On the other hand, the 21-day moving average is something you can use repeatedly. Like I said before, if you can’t break above it, it’s just a regular rebound. Only if you really break above it does it count as a reversal signal.

Some people might wonder: you look at order books for downside but focus on moving averages for upside—aren’t those methods totally unrelated? Actually, I think it’s pretty normal—doesn’t matter if it’s a black cat or a white cat, as long as it catches mice, it’s a good cat. Maybe one day you’ll also combine seemingly unrelated things together. It’s like reading: textbook knowledge doesn’t always apply directly to real life, but if you combine it with some real-world experience, you might actually make something interesting out of it.

You need to keep enriching your toolbox, but the premise is—you need to have a toolbox first. By the way, I’ve put the specific chart in the comment section.