I've been in the crypto market for 6 years and have gone through 3 full bull and bear cycles. I've seen too many friends chase the highs and panic sell at the lows, only to get stuck at the peak and exit with heavy losses. How do I always manage to get the timing right? To be honest, it's not because I can predict price movements—doing that is like buying a lottery ticket; it's all pure luck.

I have to be honest, I paid my tuition in 2018 as well. Back then, I watched a major coin crash from its highs down to $3,200 and thought it was a golden opportunity, so I jumped in without hesitation. What happened? The price kept falling to $2,800, and my initial capital was stuck there for half a year before I finally broke even. That lesson was a wake-up call: never make trading decisions based on "gut feeling" again—find a reliable entry signal.

**My Core Strategy: 200-Day Moving Average + Three-Week Confirmation Rule**

After my lesson from the market, I started studying technical indicators. The method I use now revolves around one core principle—not looking at daily prices, but focusing on trend confirmation. Specifically, I keep a close eye on the 200-day moving average, but I don't jump in as soon as the price touches it. I wait for three conditions to be met:

Three consecutive weekly closing prices above the 200-day moving average, and each week's closing price must be higher than the previous week's. Only when all three conditions are satisfied do I consider it a reliable signal that a bull market is starting.

Sounds overly cautious? But slow is fast. In May 2020, when this signal system flashed green, I opened a small position to test the waters. As everyone knows, the price soared from $9,000 all the way to $69,000, and I held all the way without getting shaken out by mid-cycle pullbacks. In November 2023, the signal appeared again, and I decisively increased my position. In three months, the price jumped from $35,000 to $48,000, yielding far better returns than blind bottom-fishing.

Why wait for three weeks? Because...