CICC: Powell's stance at the June interest rate meeting may be hawkish.

Shenchao TechFlow News, on June 12, according to Golden Ten Data, CICC issued a document saying that looking ahead, we tend to see a round of price increases in the United States in the coming months, but unlike 2021-2022, this round of price increases is more structural and one-time characteristics, not comprehensive inflation. For the Fed, the dovish inflation data is good news, but officials will not make major decisions based on a single month’s data. Since the labor market is still stable, the Fed does not need to rush to cut interest rates, and officials may prefer to look at a few more sets of data before making a decision. Next week, the Federal Reserve will usher in its June interest rate meeting. In our view, the June FOMC is likely to raise its inflation forecast slightly compared to the dot plot in March, when there were no “reciprocal tariffs”, but the Fed’s assessment of growth is likely to be more optimistic than in March due to the resilience of nonfarm payrolls and the cooling of tariffs. As a result, Powell’s tone at this meeting may be hawkish, which may disappoint investors who expect the Fed to cut interest rates.