Polymarket's probability of rate cuts dropped to 44%: The biggest mistake in crypto isn't the direction, but treating probabilities as faith.

On Polymarket, the probability of rate cuts before the end of 2026 was directly cut to about 44% around April 29 (previously over 60%). At the same time, Fed-funds futures are also pricing in a path where "no rate cuts may occur in 2026."
You may not trust any KOL, but you can't ignore: when the market withdraws the "rate cut story," all assets that rely on liquidity to justify valuations will be revalued. Many think this only affects US stocks, but in fact, it's more deadly for crypto.
Crypto's rise is most fueled by two things:
- Decrease in US dollar funding costs (rate cuts/loose expectations);
- Expansion of risk appetite (high beta chasing).
The current issue is: the second may still be there, but the first is being priced down by probabilities.
Adding geopolitical conflicts causing energy/inflation disruptions, the market's consensus on "soft landing + rate cuts" is cracking.
You will see a new structure: during the day, US stocks rely on earnings/share buybacks to support, at night, crypto relies on narrative surges, but each rally becomes easier to be knocked back—because funds are more willing to treat crypto as "liquidity that can be sold," rather than "a core position that must be held."
The real trading approach isn't guessing Fed moves, but watching "how probabilities evolve."
You only need three charts:
- Polymarket: whether the probability of rate cuts continues to decline or shows a turning point (the turning point is more important than the absolute value).
- CME futures: whether they further price in "no rate cuts for the whole year" as the main scenario.
- Crypto ETF/funding rates: if probabilities are lowered but leverage remains, that’s just smoke before a stampede.
My clear view: the big trend in 2026 won't come from the "rate cut wish pool," but from "profits/cash flow/real buying." Those who treat probabilities as faith will ultimately be harvested by probabilities.