Chubby Penguin and Bored Ape suddenly surge! Behind it is the NFT “Virtual Plump” crisis: trading volume and user numbers cut in half

The NFT market has recently experienced a rebound, led by Bored Apes and Pudgy Penguins, causing floor prices to surge significantly. However, on-chain data shows that both total trading volume and active users have been “cut in half,” indicating that capital is highly concentrated in a few blue-chip projects.

Non-fungible tokens (NFTs) have recently surged in popularity again. For investors closely watching market prices, it seems like the market has returned to a springtime of prosperity. However, if we observe on-chain trading data, this rebound appears more like “a small amount of capital pushing prices up,” rather than a genuine market recovery.

This rally is led by Bored Ape Yacht Club (BAYC) and Pudgy Penguins, with the floor prices of these two major blue-chip NFT projects rising by double digits in recent weeks, and their token prices also soaring. Nevertheless, behind this seemingly lively comeback, actual buying activity remains scarce.

For example, Pudgy Penguins’ floor price has now surpassed 5 ETH, with a weekly increase of over 20%; over the past 7 days, approximately 201 transactions have been completed, with a trading volume approaching 1,000 ETH. On the other hand, Bored Ape’s floor price has skyrocketed by 81% over the past 30 days, rebounding strongly from previous lows.

Image source: “BlockTalk”

In the NFT market, the floor price is a key indicator that investors closely monitor, representing the lowest asking price currently available. For example, if the cheapest Pudgy Penguins NFT listed on the market is priced at 5.38 ETH, that is the series’ floor price. Usually, an increase in the floor price indicates that buyers are willing to pay more to enter; conversely, a decline suggests holders are eager to sell off quickly.

Capital pools shrink, and player activity is “halved”

However, behind the glory of top projects leading the charge, the market structure of NFTs reveals underlying concerns: overall participation is shrinking significantly.

According to on-chain data analysis platform CryptoSlam, the global NFT monthly sales have plummeted from $304 million in February this year to about $175 million in April; at the same time, total transaction counts and active users have both been “cut in half.”

Meanwhile, the average transaction price of NFTs has doubled, rising from $30.6 in March to $67.38 in April. These seemingly contradictory data points actually reflect the same phenomenon: the market has not experienced a full-scale return of buying interest, but rather a shrinking capital pool that is highly concentrated in a few high-priced blue-chip NFTs.

The “quality” of buying activity varies greatly, and retail investors remain trapped in “bag holding”

Even top-tier blue-chip NFT projects show very different buying structures. Pudgy Penguins, while increasing in price, still maintains relatively high trading activity, indicating a healthy level of market engagement. In contrast, veteran projects like CryptoPunks, although with weekly trading volumes similar to Pudgy Penguins, have far fewer transactions, meaning that just a few large trades can easily influence the price.

From a broader market signal perspective, the situation remains mixed. CryptoSlam data indicates that about 50% of current NFT trading volume still involves “wash trading” (also known as fake volume). Additionally, overall trading profits remain negative, which means that despite recent price rebounds, most players are still “bag holding.”

Based on all these data points, the current NFT market seems more like “building a bottom and stabilizing” rather than “explosive expansion.” Prices are rising, but participation is waning, and all the heat and capital are flowing into just a few top projects.

More importantly, over the past month, Ethereum has surged by about 18%, and Bitcoin has also shown similar gains. In other words, this seemingly NFT-exclusive rally is largely driven by the overall risk appetite increase in the broader cryptocurrency market, with Ethereum-priced top NFTs just riding the wave of hot money, soaring along with the market.

• This article is reprinted with permission from “BlockTalk”
• Original title: “Pudgy Penguins, Bored Apes Surge: NFT Market Faces ‘Virtual Fat’ Crisis, Trading Volume and Users Halved”
• Original author: Block Sister MEL