Preface

This past week brought several notable developments in the Web3 space, both on the policy and macroeconomic fronts. On March 28, the U.S. Department of Commerce reported that the core PCE price index rose 2.79% year-over-year in February, marking the highest level since December. Internationally, Kazakhstan announced plans to launch a “National Crypto Bank” to centralize the oversight of cryptocurrency trading nationwide. As of March 31, a global trend toward lighter crypto regulations continues, with 47 countries easing restrictions since 2020. On April 1, the U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI showed its first contraction of the year, while the price index jumped for a second straight month. On April 2, reports surfaced that the Trump administration is considering a new financial tool called “BitBonds” as part of a broader strategy to bolster its Bitcoin reserves.

Abstract

• March 28 — U.S. Core PCE Price Index for February Rose 2.79% YoY, Exceeding Market Expectations
• March 28 — Kazakhstan Plans to Establish a National Crypto Bank to Regulate Crypto Trading Fully
• March 31 — Global Regulatory Easing: 47 Countries Have Relaxed Crypto Regulations Since 2020
• April 1 — U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI Contracts for the First Time This Year, Price Index Soars for Second Month
• April 2 — Trump Administration Proposes “BitBonds” to Expand Bitcoin Reserves

Key Events

March 28 — U.S. Core PCE Price Index for February Rose 2.79% YoY, Exceeding Market Expectations

According to data released by the U.S. Department of Commerce, the core PCE (Personal Consumption Expenditures) price index rose 2.79% year-over-year in February, the highest level since December last year. This exceeded both market expectations of 2.7% and January’s reading of 2.6%. On a month-over-month basis, the index rose 0.4%, also above the expected 0.3%, marking the largest monthly increase since January 2024. Meanwhile, the overall PCE price index rose 2.5% YoY, which aligns with expectations and previous data, and increased by 0.3% MoM, also matching expectations. Following the release, U.S. stock index futures extended losses, U.S. Treasury yields remained low, and the U.S. Dollar Index edged higher. [1]

The stronger-than-expected core PCE inflation suggests that inflationary pressures remain persistent, delaying market expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts. This reinforced the outlook for a “higher for longer” interest rate policy. After the data release, the U.S. dollar strengthened while equities came under pressure, reflecting market concerns over tighter monetary policy. Globally, this dynamic has knock-on effects: a stronger dollar puts depreciation pressure on emerging market currencies and raises the cost of repaying their external debts; global capital may accelerate its flow back to the U.S., putting emerging markets at risk of capital outflows. Meanwhile, the Fed’s delayed rate cuts are forcing other major central banks to maintain a hawkish stance, limiting the space for global monetary easing. Persistently high interest rates are suppressing the performance of risk assets and increasing market volatility.

March 28 — Kazakhstan Plans to Establish a National Crypto Bank to Regulate Crypto Trading Fully

Kazakhstan plans to set up a “National Crypto Bank” to centralize the management and supervision of cryptocurrency trading nationwide. The institution will be responsible for essential functions such as crypto asset clearing, payments, and auditing, aiming to bring the large volume of currently gray-area crypto activities into a compliant regulatory framework. Lawmakers noted that around 90% of crypto transactions currently occur outside legal oversight, which affects tax collection and financial security and poses risks of money laundering and capital flight. As such, establishing an official regulatory infrastructure has become a top priority for the authorities.

From a market perspective, this move signals that emerging economies are gradually shifting away from being “mining-friendly with loose oversight” and are moving toward building a more controlled and institutionalized crypto financial system. If Kazakhstan successfully implements its national crypto bank, it may serve as a reference model for other resource-rich nations and promote regional regulatory alignment.

Although the short-term impact on global markets may be limited, this trend could accelerate the emergence of a new phase where “regulatory compliance and state intervention coexist,” creating structural challenges and opportunities for centralized exchanges and on-chain transparent financial systems. [2]

March 31 — Global Regulatory Easing: 47 Countries Have Relaxed Crypto Regulations Since 2020

Since 2020, global cryptocurrency regulatory policies have continued to evolve. According to statistics, 47 countries have proactively relaxed or simplified cryptocurrency regulations, covering trading, holding, tax reporting, ICO issuance, and mining activities. This demonstrates a growing acceptance and adoption of this emerging asset class across nations. In contrast, only four countries tightened regulations during the same period, with some even implementing outright bans on crypto trading and mining. This contrast shows that the overall global regulatory trend is moving toward a more open, inclusive, and compliant direction.

This shift in regulation not only affects capital flows but also has a significant influence on industry structure and technological development paths. As more countries ease restrictions, integrating traditional financial systems with the crypto ecosystem accelerates. It also creates greater development opportunities for Web3 startups, crypto financial services, and on-chain applications. Although a few countries remain cautious, the mainstream trend is increasingly leaning toward “conditional acceptance,” which is expected to boost market confidence and attract more institutional investors. [3]

April 1 — U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI Contracts for the First Time This Year, Price Index Soars for Second Month

According to data released by the Institute for Supply Management (ISM), the U.S. manufacturing PMI dropped below the 50-point threshold for the first time this year in March, indicating contraction. The ISM manufacturing index came in at 49, below expectations of 49.5 and down from February’s 50.3 (with 50 being the line dividing expansion from contraction). The price index surged 7 points in a month to 69.4, the highest since June 2022. At the same time, factory orders and employment data weakened, reflecting the economic impact of Trump’s tariff policy. Specifically, the factory orders index fell sharply by 3.4 points to 45.2, the lowest level since May 2023. Inventory levels rose to 53.4, the highest since October 2022.

The ISM report noted that uncertainty in implementing Trump’s tariff policies is shaking confidence among U.S. manufacturers. It is reported that Trump plans to announce a new reciprocal tariff policy on imported goods this Wednesday, addressing trade imbalances, encouraging domestic investment, and promoting domestic production of key goods. Due to a lack of clarity around the policy details, some companies have already delayed their investment plans. [4]

April 2 — Trump Administration Proposes “BitBonds” to Expand Bitcoin Reserves

The Trump administration is considering adopting a new type of financial instrument called “BitBonds” as part of a strategy to build up the nation’s Bitcoin reserves. The proposal aims to fund Bitcoin accumulation by issuing bonds tied to Bitcoin, without using the federal budget directly. [5]

The plan suggests that the government issue U.S. dollar-denominated bonds with a 1% annual interest rate, much lower than traditional U.S. Treasury yields. The intended goals of BitBonds include: reducing interest burdens on national debt, funding national Bitcoin reserves, providing U.S. households with tax-advantaged savings tools, and gradually lowering federal debt through asset appreciation. Specifically, 90% of the proceeds would be used for general government purposes, while 10% would be allocated for purchasing Bitcoin. Investors would receive a fixed interest return and benefit from potential Bitcoin price appreciation.

If implemented, this strategy could save the U.S. government a large amount in interest expenses and reduce national debt through Bitcoin’s potential value growth, promoting fiscal sustainability and reinforcing U.S. leadership in the global financial landscape. However, critics warn that Bitcoin’s high volatility and uncertainty may pose significant risks. Moreover, direct government participation in the cryptocurrency market could spark legal and policy controversies. Therefore, while “BitBonds” present an innovative fiscal strategy, their practical effect and feasibility still face challenges regarding legal frameworks, regulatory compliance, and market acceptance.

Summary

This week, the cryptocurrency market was influenced by a combination of macroeconomic policy and regulatory developments. Data released by the U.S. Department of Commerce showed that the core PCE price index rose 2.79% year-over-year in February, the highest level since last December. The PCE index indicates that inflationary pressure remains persistent, delaying market expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut. Internationally, Kazakhstan plans to establish a “National Crypto Bank” to unify the management and supervision of crypto trading across the country. Meanwhile, global regulatory policies are easing, with 47 countries having proactively relaxed or simplified crypto-related regulations, including those on trading, holding, tax reporting, ICO issuance, and mining. Data from the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) showed that in March, the U.S. Manufacturing PMI fell below the expansion-contraction threshold for the first time this year, indicating contraction. The Trump administration is also considering launching a new financial instrument called “BitBonds” to build up Bitcoin reserves.

Current economic data suggests that the U.S. economy remains in a downward cycle. However, it’s worth noting that several countries—led by the U.S.—are accelerating efforts to improve their crypto regulatory frameworks under economic pressure. This trend creates a more favorable policy environment for integrating traditional finance and digital assets.

References：

1. Employ America,https://www.employamerica.org/blog/february-2025-core-cast-post-pce/
2. X,https://x.com/Cointelegraph/status/1905375540078395768
3. X,https://x.com/Cointelegraph/status/1906512011002777657
4. PR Newswire,https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/manufacturing-pmi-at-49-march-2025-manufacturing-ism-report-on-business-302416129.html
5. Btcpolicy,https://www.btcpolicy.org/articles/bitcoin-enhanced-treasury-bonds-an-idea-whose-time-has-come

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