O grande panorama da exploração espacial está definido: se não houver imprevistos, a partir de 2026 a exploração espacial na China enfrentará três grandes mudanças

最近跟几个朋友吃饭，聊着聊着就说到天宫空间站又上了新一批航天员。 Recently, I had dinner with a few friends, and while chatting, we mentioned that the Tiangong space station has welcomed a new batch of astronauts.

有个朋友开玩笑说：“咱们在地球上搬砖，人家在天上出差，这差距也太大了。” One friend joked, “We are moving bricks on Earth, while they are on business trips in space; the gap is just too big.”

另一个当爸的赶紧接话：“我儿子天天嚷嚷着长大要当航天员，我这当爹的连航天员吃啥都说不清楚。” Another father quickly replied, “My son keeps saying he wants to be an astronaut when he grows up, and here I am, as his dad, not even knowing what astronauts eat.”

大家哈哈一笑，但仔细想想，航天这事儿，以前总觉得离咱老百姓挺远的。 Everyone laughed, but upon reflection, space travel always felt quite distant from us common folks.

可这几年不一样了，空间站常态化运营、登月计划一步步推进、商业航天也开始冒头，航天不再是报纸上“高大上”的新闻，而是实实在在开始影响我们的生活。 However, these past few years have been different; the space station is operating regularly, the moon landing plans are progressing step by step, and commercial spaceflight is starting to emerge. Space travel is no longer just a “high-end” news item in newspapers, but is really beginning to impact our lives.

2026年马上就要到了，按照目前中国航天的节奏，我可以大胆说一句：不出意外的话，从今年起，中国航天将迎来3大变化，而且件件跟咱们老百姓息息相关。 2026 is just around the corner, and according to the current pace of China’s space program, I can boldly say: barring any surprises, starting this year, China’s space industry will welcome three major changes, all of which are closely related to us common people.

先别急着说我吹牛，咱们看事实。 Don’t rush to say I’m bragging; let’s look at the facts.

2024年，商业航天首次被写入政府工作报告，列为新增长引擎之一。 In 2024, commercial spaceflight was included for the first time in the government work report as one of the new engines for growth.

这意味着什么？意味着航天不再是国家队“包圆”的领域，民营企业可以光明正大地搞火箭、搞飞船、搞太空旅行。 What does this mean? It means space travel is no longer a domain monopolized by the national team; private enterprises can openly develop rockets, spacecraft, and space tourism.

你可能会问，这事儿跟咱有啥关系？关系大了。 You might ask, what does this have to do with us? It has a big relation.

以前上太空，那是航天员的事儿，万里挑一，普通人想都别想。 In the past, going to space was a matter for astronauts, a rare occurrence, and ordinary people couldn’t even think about it.

但现在，商业航天的核心逻辑就是，让太空服务普通人。 But now, the core logic of commercial spaceflight is to make space serve ordinary people.

美国的SpaceX已经带了好几个“素人”上过天了，虽然票价贵得离谱，但那是因为技术还没普及。 SpaceX in the United States has already taken several “civilians” to space, and while ticket prices are absurdly high, that’s because the technology has not yet become widespread.

咱们国家走的是另一条路：先把成本降下来，再把服务做上去。 Our country is taking a different path: first lowering the costs, and then improving the services.

我给大家算一笔账。 Let me do some calculations for you.

十年前，发射一公斤物资上太空，成本大概要一两万美元。 Ten years ago, launching one kilogram of goods into space cost around twenty to thirty thousand dollars.

现在随着火箭回收技术成熟、商业航天公司入场，这个成本正在以肉眼可见的速度往下掉。 Now, with the maturity of rocket recovery technology and the entry of commercial space companies, this cost is decreasing at a visible rate.

按照业内预测，到2026年左右，近地轨道的太空旅行成本有望降到几十万人民币一次。 According to industry forecasts, by around 2026, the cost of space travel to low Earth orbit is expected to drop to several hundred thousand yuan per trip.

几十万听着还不少，但你想啊，二十年前坐飞机还是奢侈事儿，现在谁还觉得坐飞机是“有钱人”的专利？ Several hundred thousand sounds like a lot, but think about it: twenty years ago, flying was still a luxury. Now, who still thinks flying is just for the “rich”?

太空旅行也一样，从几千万降到几十万，再到几万块，这个过程不会太久。 Space travel is the same; from tens of millions to several hundred thousand, and then down to tens of thousands, this process won’t take long.

而且，咱们国家的商业航天公司现在可不是光说不练。 Moreover, our country’s commercial space companies are not just talk.

有家叫“中科宇航”的企业，已经明确说了要在2026年前后推出亚轨道太空旅行项目。 A company called “China Aerospace Science and Technology Corporation” has already clearly stated that it will launch a suborbital space tourism project around 2026.

亚轨道是啥意思？就是飞到100公里左右的高空，在那儿待个十几分钟，体验失重、看看地球弧线，然后回来。 What does suborbital mean? It means flying to about 100 kilometers in altitude, staying there for a few minutes, experiencing weightlessness, looking at the Earth’s curvature, and then coming back.

时间不长，但足够你吹一辈子牛了。 The time is short, but it’s enough for you to brag about it for a lifetime.

还有个细节值得注意，2025年，海南商业航天发射场已经投入常态化运营了。 Another detail worth noting is that in 2025, the Hainan commercial space launch site will be put into regular operation.

这是咱们国家首个专门给商业航天用的发射场，说白了，就是给民营火箭公司“开绿灯”的地方。 This is our country’s first launch site specifically for commercial spaceflight, essentially a place that gives private rocket companies the “green light.”

以前民营公司想发火箭，得排队等国家的大发射场，一等就是大半年。 In the past, if private companies wanted to launch rockets, they had to wait in line for the national major launch sites, sometimes for over half a year.

现在好了，有自己的场子，想发就发，频率上来了，成本自然就下去了。 Now, it’s better; with their own site, they can launch whenever they want, increasing the frequency, and naturally, the costs will go down.

所以到2026年，你很可能在朋友圈刷到这样的动态：“今天去太空转了一圈，失重感真不错，下回带爸妈一起去。” So by 2026, you might very well see posts in your social media like, “Today I took a trip to space; the weightlessness was amazing! Next time, I’ll bring my parents along.”

别惊讶，这就是商业航天普及后的日常。 Don’t be surprised; this is the norm after the popularization of commercial spaceflight.

说个你可能不知道的事儿，你家里好多东西，都是航天技术“下凡”的产物。 Let me tell you something you might not know: many things in your home are products of space technology “coming down to Earth.”

咱们从厨房说起。 Let’s start from the kitchen.

现在超市里那种“冻干水果”“冻干咖啡”，你肯定买过吧？ Those “freeze-dried fruits” and “freeze-dried coffee” you see in supermarkets, you’ve definitely bought them, right?

口感酥脆、营养保留得好，价格还不便宜。 They are crispy and retain their nutrients well, but they’re not cheap.

这项技术最早是干嘛的？是给航天员在太空吃的。 What was this technology originally used for? It was for astronauts to eat in space.

太空里没法生火做饭，食物必须轻便、耐储存、复水即食，于是冻干技术应运而生。 In space, there’s no way to cook, so food must be lightweight, durable, and instantly rehydrated, which gave rise to freeze-drying technology.

现在好了，技术成熟了，成本下来了，普通人在家也能吃上“航天级”零食。 Now, the technology has matured, costs have come down, and ordinary people can also enjoy “space-grade” snacks at home.

再说个跟穿有关的。 Let’s talk about something related to clothing.

运动品牌那些“自发热”“恒温”的保暖内衣，你冬天可能没少买。 Those “self-heating” and “temperature-regulating” thermal underwear from sports brands, you probably bought a lot of them in winter.

这里面用到的相变材料技术，最早也是给航天服用的。 The phase-change material technology used in them was originally developed for space suits.

太空里温差极大，太阳照到的一面一百多度，背阴的一面零下一百多度，航天服必须能自动调节温度。 In space, the temperature difference is extreme; the side facing the sun can be over a hundred degrees, while the shaded side can be below minus a hundred degrees. Space suits must be able to regulate temperature automatically.

现在这技术“下凡”了，做成了咱们日常穿的保暖衣，几百块钱就能买一件，又轻又暖。 Now this technology has “come down to Earth,” and has been made into the thermal clothing we wear daily, which you can buy for a few hundred yuan; they are lightweight and warm.

还有咱们每天用的导航。 And then there’s the navigation we use every day.

你打车、点外卖、开车导航，用的都是北斗系统。 When you take a taxi, order food delivery, or use navigation while driving, you’re using the BeiDou system.

北斗是啥？就是咱们国家自己的全球卫星导航系统。 What is BeiDou? It’s our country’s own global satellite navigation system.

以前咱们用GPS，那是美国的，人家随时可以关掉信号。 In the past, we used GPS, which is from the United States, and they can turn off the signal at any time.

现在北斗全球组网完成，精度比GPS还高，而且完全自主可控。 Now the BeiDou system has completed its global networking, with accuracy even higher than GPS, and it’s fully autonomous and controllable.

你点的那份外卖，骑手能精准找到你家门口，靠的就是北斗。 The food delivery you ordered, the rider can find your doorstep accurately, thanks to BeiDou.

2026年之后，这种“技术下凡”会越来越快。 After 2026, this kind of “technology coming down to Earth” will happen faster and faster.

我给大家透露几个正在路上的： Let me share a few things that are on the way:

第一个是“航天育种”的蔬菜水果。 The first is “space breeding” for vegetables and fruits.

把种子带上太空，在微重力、高辐射的环境里转一圈再带回来种，种出来的东西产量高、抗病虫害、口感还好。 Taking seeds to space, spinning them around in a microgravity and high-radiation environment, and then bringing them back to plant, results in produce that has higher yields, is resistant to pests and diseases, and tastes better.

现在太空辣椒、太空番茄已经有人种了，到2026年，你在超市里很可能就能买到“太空育种”的标签菜，价格跟普通菜差不多，但个头大一圈、味道还更浓。 Space peppers and space tomatoes are already being grown, and by 2026, you might find “space-bred” labeled vegetables in supermarkets, priced similarly to regular vegetables but larger and with a richer flavor.

第二个是“气凝胶”保温材料。 The second is “aerogel” insulation material.

这玩意儿是世界上最轻的固体，隔热能力是普通保温材料的几倍，最早用在航天器上。 This stuff is the lightest solid in the world, with insulation capabilities several times that of ordinary insulation materials, and it was originally used in spacecraft.

现在技术下凡了，开始做成建筑保温材料、户外装备。 Now the technology has come down to Earth and is starting to be made into building insulation materials and outdoor gear.

到2026年，你家装修时很可能用上这种材料做的保温层，冬天暖气费能省不少。 By 2026, you might very well use insulation layers made from this material when renovating your home, which can save a lot on heating costs in winter.

第三个是“水循环净化系统”。 The third is the “water recycling purification system.”

空间站上喝的水，其实是航天员的尿液和汗液循环净化出来的，净化率超过98%。 The water consumed on the space station is actually recycled and purified from astronauts’ urine and sweat, with a purification rate exceeding 98%.

这技术现在已经开始用在偏远地区、海岛、救灾现场了。 This technology is now being used in remote areas, islands, and disaster relief sites.

到2026年，家用的小型水循环净化设备很可能上市，一台机器几千块钱，能把洗澡水、洗菜水循环成饮用水，水费能省一大半。 By 2026, small household water recycling purification devices are likely to hit the market, costing a few thousand yuan, capable of turning shower water and vegetable washing water into drinking water, potentially saving over half on water bills.

你看，航天技术真不是高高在上的东西，它就在你身边，默默地改善着你的生活。 You see, space technology is not something lofty; it’s right beside you, silently improving your life.

第三个变化，可能跟你钱包直接相关，航天产业正在大规模“落地”，大量就业机会正在冒出来。 The third change, which may directly relate to your wallet, is that the space industry is undergoing large-scale “landing,” and a multitude of job opportunities are emerging.

以前提到航天工作，大家第一反应是“科学家”“工程师”，门槛高得吓人。 When space work was mentioned before, the first reaction was “scientists” and “engineers,” with daunting entry barriers.

但现在的航天产业链，从研发制造到发射服务，从数据应用到旅游体验，已经拉出了一条长长的产业链，里面藏着大量普通人的机会。 But now, the space industry chain, from research and manufacturing to launch services, from data applications to tourism experiences, has formed a long industry chain, hiding numerous opportunities for ordinary people.

我给大家盘一盘。 Let me break it down for you.

第一块是“制造”。 The first segment is “manufacturing.”

火箭、卫星这些东西，以前是“手工作坊式”生产，一年造不了几颗。 Rockets and satellites used to be produced in a “workshop-style,” and only a few could be built in a year.

现在商业航天公司入场，开始搞“流水线式”生产，一条生产线一年能造几十颗卫星。 Now commercial space companies have entered the scene, moving to “assembly line” production, where one production line can manufacture dozens of satellites a year.

这就带来了大量制造岗位，数控操作、焊接、装配、检测……这些工种不需要你博士毕业，技校出来的熟练工就能干，月薪过万是起步价。 This has created a large number of manufacturing jobs in areas such as CNC operations, welding, assembly, and inspection, which don’t require you to have a PhD; skilled workers from vocational schools can do them, with starting salaries over ten thousand yuan.

第二块是“应用”。 The second segment is “applications.”

卫星发上去，不是摆着好看的，是要产生数据的。 Satellites aren’t just for show; they are meant to generate data.

这些数据怎么用？谁来用？这就催生了大量“卫星数据应用”岗位。 How are these data used? Who uses them? This has spawned many “satellite data application” positions.

比如农业遥感，卫星拍下农田照片，分析土壤墒情、作物长势，指导农民精准施肥打药。 For example, in agricultural remote sensing, satellites capture photos of farmland, analyze soil moisture and crop growth, and guide farmers on precise fertilization and spraying.

这个岗位需要懂点遥感知识、懂点农业知识，但不非得是航天专业出身。 This position requires some knowledge of remote sensing and agriculture, but you don’t necessarily have to come from a space background.

类似的还有城市管理、交通规划、环境监测，都在大量招人。 Similar roles in urban management, traffic planning, and environmental monitoring are also hiring extensively.

第三块是“服务”。 The third segment is “services.”

商业航天搞起来了，就得有人做配套服务，航天科普、太空旅行导游、航天主题餐饮、航天文创产品……这些岗位跟航天技术关系不大，但对普通人的门槛更低。 With the rise of commercial spaceflight, someone needs to provide supporting services, such as space education, space travel guides, space-themed dining, and space cultural products. These positions are less related to space technology but have lower barriers for ordinary people.

我认识一个90后小伙儿，在文昌航天发射场附近开了家民宿，专门接待来看火箭发射的游客，一年营收上百万。 I know a young man born in the 90s who opened a guesthouse near the Wenchang Space Launch Site, specifically catering to tourists who come to watch rocket launches, and he earns over a million yuan a year.

他说，火箭发射那天，民宿价格能翻三倍，还一房难求。 He said that on rocket launch days, the guesthouse prices can triple, and it becomes difficult to find a room.

第四块是“新职业”。 The fourth segment is “new professions.”

2026年前后，随着太空旅行逐步开放，会出现一批全新的职业。 Around 2026, as space travel gradually opens up, a new batch of professions will emerge.

比如“太空导游”，带着游客上太空，讲解失重体验、教大家怎么在太空拍照。 For example, “space tour guides” will take tourists to space, explaining the weightlessness experience and teaching them how to take photos in space.

再比如“太空农场主”，在空间站或者月球基地里种菜、养蘑菇，供应太空餐。 Another example is “space farmers,” who will grow vegetables and cultivate mushrooms in space stations or lunar bases, supplying space cuisine.

还有“太空心理辅导员”，帮长期在轨的航天员和太空游客疏导心理问题。 There will also be “space counselors,” helping astronauts on long missions and space tourists with psychological issues.

这些职业听着像科幻，但其实已经在路上了。 These professions may sound like science fiction, but they are already on the way.

2024年，咱们国家就已经开始公开招募“载荷专家”了，这其实就是航天员的一种，只不过不要求你是战斗机飞行员，只要你懂专业、身体过关就行。 In 2024, our country already began publicly recruiting “payload specialists,” which is actually a type of astronaut, but you don’t have to be a fighter pilot; as long as you know the profession and meet the physical standards, it’s fine.

随着商业航天发展，这种“半专业”的太空岗位会越来越多，普通人上去“出差”不再是天方夜谭。 With the development of commercial spaceflight, such “semi-professional” space positions will become increasingly common, and ordinary people going to “business trips” in space will no longer be a fantasy.

我还注意到一个数据，截至2024年底，国内注册的商业航天企业已经超过500家，从业人员超过10万人。 I also noticed a statistic: as of the end of 2024, there are over 500 registered commercial space companies in the country, employing over 100,000 people.

这个数字看起来不大，但增长速度惊人，每年翻倍都不止。 This number may not seem large, but the growth rate is astonishing, doubling every year or more.

到2026年，这个产业很可能吸纳超过50万人就业，而且不挑学历、不挑专业，只要你肯学肯干，就有机会吃上“航天饭”。 By 2026, this industry is likely to absorb over 500,000 jobs, and it doesn’t discriminate based on education level or major; as long as you’re willing to learn and work hard, you’ll have the opportunity to enjoy “space-related jobs.”

最后说几句 Finally, let me say a few words.

写这篇文章的时候，我一直在想一个问题：为什么咱们老百姓应该关注航天？ While writing this article, I kept thinking about one question: why should we common folks pay attention to space travel?

有人说是为了民族自豪感，这当然没错。 Some say it’s for national pride, and that’s certainly true.

但我更想说的是，航天不是远离生活的“面子工程”，它正在实实在在地变成我们生活的一部分。 But I want to emphasize that space travel is not a distant “vanity project”; it is genuinely becoming a part of our lives.

太空旅行会像坐飞机一样普及，航天技术会变成你家里的日常用品，航天产业会成为你身边的工作机会。 Space travel will become as common as flying, space technology will turn into everyday household items, and the space industry will provide job opportunities around you.

这些变化不是遥远的未来，而是2026年开始就会陆续发生的事情。 These changes are not a distant future but will begin to unfold starting in 2026.

当然，罗马不是一天建成的。 Of course, Rome wasn’t built in a day.

商业航天的发展也会遇到技术瓶颈、成本压力、安全风险，但这些都不妨碍我们看到一个明确的趋势，航天正在从“国家队”走向“全民参与”，从“高精尖”走向“接地气”。 The development of commercial spaceflight will also encounter technological bottlenecks, cost pressures, and safety risks, but none of this prevents us from seeing a clear trend: space travel is moving from a “national team” to “universal participation,” and from “high-precision” to “grounded.”

最后，我想问问屏幕前的你：如果太空旅行的票价降到你能接受的范围，你愿意上去转一圈吗？ Finally, I want to ask you, the viewer: if the price of space travel dropped to an acceptable range, would you be willing to take a trip?

你最想体验的是什么？欢迎在评论区聊聊。 What would you most want to experience? Feel free to discuss in the comments section.

咱们评论区见。 See you in the comments section.