Bitcoin ETF Data Analysis: The Impact of Institutional Get on Board on the Market

Recently, several well-known institutions have submitted applications for Bitcoin spot ETFs to the SEC, attracting widespread attention from the market. To analyze the impact of institutions getting on board on the crypto market, this article analyzes the trading situation of the listed Bitcoin spot ETFs, futures ETFs, and trust funds.

The main findings are as follows:

1. The total holdings of the three funds BTCC.U, BTCE, and GBTC are approximately 675,600 BTC, equivalent to 2.027 billion USD. Since June, there has been a total increase of 9,292 BTC, showing a good overall growth trend.

2. The total assets managed by the five main Bitcoin futures ETFs: BITO, XBTF, BTF, BITS, and DEFI have reached $1.295 billion. BITO is the only futures ETF fully allocated to CME futures contracts, while the other futures ETFs are also allocated a certain proportion of other assets, such as U.S. Treasury bonds.

3. The highest return in the past month is BITS, reaching 33.20%, while others are only around 12%. Since the beginning of this year, the highest return is still BITS, reaching 137.65%, while others are around 74%. The performance is better than that of spot ETFs and trust funds.

4. Within a week after the announcement of a large asset management company's application for a Bitcoin ETF, the average daily price of Bitcoin rose by 2.78%, marking the largest average daily increase due to news within the statistical scope. Previously, another significant average daily increase due to news was recorded in the month of a certain institution's futures ETF application, with an average daily rise of 1.56%.

5. The impact of institutional ETF applications and listings on the spot price of Bitcoin may come from three aspects: first, the reputation endorsement of the institutions themselves; second, the type of ETF applied for, with spot ETF application news bringing a greater increase; third, the price trend of Bitcoin at the time the news occurs. If the application and listing news occurs during an upward trend of Bitcoin, it usually leads to a certain degree of price increase, while if it occurs during a downward trend, such news typically cannot reverse the market.

Bitcoin spot ETF holdings increase, trust fund off-exchange premium rate rebounds

As of July 18, the total holdings of the three funds BTCC.U, BTCE, and GBTC are approximately 675,600 BTC. Based on the recent price of Bitcoin at $30,000, this amounts to $2.027 billion. Among them, GBTC has the largest scale, with holdings of 625,200 BTC, while both BTCC.U and BTCE have holdings of around 200,000 BTC.

Since June, the total holdings of the three funds have increased by 9292 BTC, showing a good overall growth trend, among which only the holdings of GBTC have slightly decreased by 0.25%, while the holdings of BTCC.U and BTCE have increased by 24.83% and 31.07%, respectively.

From the perspective of yield performance, as of July 18, the average yield of BTCC.U this month is about 6.76%, while the average monthly yield this year is approximately 8.84%, which is significantly better than BTCE and GBTC. The average yields for the latter two this month are -5.27% and -26.39%, respectively, while their average monthly yields this year are -5.85% and -38.18%, both indicating a loss, but the extent of the losses is showing a decreasing trend.

Although the performance of BTCC.U's returns is better, its trading volume is not the highest. As of July 18, BTCC.U's average daily trading volume this month is only 99,500, while BTCC's average daily trading volume this month is approximately 221,700, totaling 321,200, which is higher than BTCE's average of 154,000 during the same period, but lower than GBTC's average of 3,926,000 during the same period.

It is worth noting that with more institutional application news being released in June and the steady rebound of BTC prices, the average daily trading volume of these four funds in June has increased month-on-month, with BTCC.U increasing by 74.89%, BTCC increasing by 47.27%, BTCE increasing by 23.66%, and GBTC increasing by 112.67%. So far this month, the average daily trading volume of BTCC.U, BTCC, and GBTC has still maintained a growth momentum.

The total assets of the 5 major Bitcoin futures ETFs are nearly $1.3 billion, and their returns have exceeded 70% this year.

As of July 18, the total assets managed by the five major Bitcoin futures ETFs, BITO, XBTF, BTF, BITS, and DEFI, have reached $1.295 billion. Among them, BITO is the largest futures ETF within the statistical scope, with total assets of $1.199 billion. Next, XBTF and BTF also have relatively large sizes, with total assets exceeding $30 million and $40 million respectively.

The underlying assets tracked by these Bitcoin futures ETFs are typically based on CME's Bitcoin futures contracts. Among them, the largest BITO is the only futures ETF that is fully allocated to CME futures contracts and implements a "rolling" futures contract strategy. In addition, other futures ETFs, based on the allocation of CME futures contracts, have also allocated a certain proportion of other assets, such as XBTF and BTF allocating US Treasuries, BITS allocating blockchain ETFs issued by other institutions, and DEFI allocating cash.

From the recent net capital flow situation, BITO has also seen the largest net inflow scale. In the last month, BITO had a net inflow of 259 million USD. Secondly, BTF and BITS also had a small amount of net inflow in the last month, approximately 1.35 million USD and 790,000 USD respectively. If we extend the time period to this year, then all 5 Bitcoin futures ETFs within the observation scope have had net inflows, with BITO still having the highest net inflow, amounting to approximately 333 million USD.

BITO is also the one with the highest average daily trading volume among these 5 Bitcoin futures ETFs, at approximately 9.9691 million shares, exceeding this month's average daily trading volume of GBTC by 153.93%. However, the trading volumes of the other futures ETFs are not high, with BTF at about 383,800 shares, XBTF at about 17,800 shares, and the remaining two both below 10,000 shares.

Overall, BITO far leads other Bitcoin futures ETFs in terms of fund size, inflow, and average daily trading volume, but in terms of returns, BITO does not lead.

According to statistics, the highest return in the last month is BITS, reaching 33.20%, while the returns of other ETFs in the observation range are only around 12%. Even if we extend the time period to this year, the highest return is still BITS, reaching 137.65%, while the returns of other ETFs in the observation range are all around 74%.

A reasonable guess is that the return of the futures ETF is largely related to the asset exposure it is allocated to. The highest yielding BITS not only allocates Bitcoin futures contracts but also another blockchain ETF, which points to a broader range of crypto assets, not just Bitcoin, which may have brought higher returns to BITS. However, overall, the return performance of the Bitcoin futures ETF is far better than that of the spot ETF and trust funds.

The impact of ETF news on BTC prices varies; the recent rise in BTC prices may also be related to on-chain fundamentals.

It is undeniable that institutional entry can bring abundant funds to the crypto market, so news about institutional applications and the issuance of ETFs can always drive changes in Bitcoin spot prices. Although the impact of news is not the only reason, it is at least one of the reasons. So, how significant is this impact?

According to statistics, within a week after the news of a large asset management company's application for a Bitcoin ETF was announced, the spot price of Bitcoin rose by 19.49%, which is equivalent to an average daily increase of 2.78%, the largest average daily increase brought by news within the statistical range. This shows the market's expectation for leading institutions to get on board.

Secondly, during the rapid growth period of GBTC from October to December 2020, the spot price of Bitcoin increased by 168.21%, which corresponds to an average daily increase of 1.87%. However, in the week following the listing of GBTC, the spot price of Bitcoin only increased by an average of 0.42% per day.

Other factors that contributed to a higher average daily increase due to news include a certain institution's futures ETF application month, during which the average daily price of Bitcoin spot increased by 1.56%; the month a certain spot ETF was approved, the average daily price of Bitcoin spot increased by 1.33%; and the month a certain institution's spot ETF application was submitted, the average daily price of Bitcoin spot increased by 1%. Additionally, there were some news events that did not drive the price of Bitcoin up, such as on the day when the news about a certain institution's spot ETF application was reported, the price of Bitcoin spot actually fell by 1.15%.

Overall, the news of institutional ETF applications and listings may affect the spot price of Bitcoin from three aspects. First, the reputation endorsement of the institutions themselves, as larger institutions can stimulate market confidence more effectively; second, the type of ETF being applied for, as spot ETFs face greater regulatory pressure and currently none have been approved for listing in the U.S. Therefore, the general situation in the past has been that news of spot ETF applications brings about larger price increases; third, the price trend of Bitcoin at the time the news occurs. If the application and listing news occurs during an upward trend in Bitcoin's price, it usually leads to a certain degree of price increase; if it occurs during a downward trend, then this news usually cannot reverse the market trend.

Therefore, it is difficult to attribute the recent rise in Bitcoin prices to a single factor. Aside from the positive news brought by institutions, it should be noted that the recent rise in on-chain transaction counts for Bitcoin has also reached a historic high due to the emergence of BRC-20 tokens. On July 18, the number of on-chain transactions for Bitcoin reached 582,500, an increase of 210.83% compared to 187,400 at the beginning of the year. From the trend, after May, the number of on-chain transactions has mostly been above 400,000, with many instances exceeding 500,000. The number of on-chain transactions is an intuitive reflection of Bitcoin's application status; generally speaking, an increase in on-chain transactions indicates an improvement in the trading fundamentals, making a price increase very likely.

The impact of news is complex; whether in the spot or futures market, how much capital the Bitcoin ETF can bring to the market and to what extent it can instill confidence depends on many factors. However, the application and approval of ETFs are closely related to the overall market development, and the two should be a mutually reinforcing and interconnected system. We will continue to monitor the trading situation of the Bitcoin ETF.