This morning, Bitcoin’s price fluctuated once again, dropping below the $77,000 mark and currently hovering around $80,000. The market seems to have entered another “pullback moment.”

Faced with these price swings, many investors are likely pondering the same question: Should they “exit to avoid risk” or “buy the dip”? This question may seem simple, but it is actually quite complex. The crypto market is highly volatile in the short term, with various noise factors intertwining, making it easy to lose direction.

When we find ourselves in a “pullback moment,” it’s crucial to take a step back from short-term price fluctuations and examine the broader picture through the lens of “trends” and “cycles.”

Of course, whether Bitcoin can continue moving forward remains a common concern among all its “passengers.” However, as we will explore today, the key to answering this question lies in understanding what exists “above trends and between cycles.”

Today, I will guide you through this framework of “trends and cycles” to clear the fog and take a rational look at Bitcoin’s “pullback moment.” First, let’s start by understanding the fundamental concepts of “trends” and “cycles.”

A picture is worth a thousand words. The chart below provides an intuitive understanding of “trends” and “cycles.” Please note that the vertical axis of the chart is logarithmic, meaning that the height from 0 to 1 is the same as from 1 to 10, which helps illustrate early price movements more clearly.

• Trend: The ever-upward red arrow represents Bitcoin’s long-term upward trend. Will this trend continue? This is the key question we aim to answer today, and we will discuss it in detail later. Several important long-term indicators will give you confidence in Bitcoin’s future.
• Cycle: The four differently colored blocks represent the different phases of each cycle. The first three cycles have relatively clear phase divisions, but the fourth cycle, which began in 2023, has yet to be fully defined and remains highly debated. This is another key point we will explore today. A crucial contrarian indicator should make it easier for you to decide when to “get on board.”

With the chart above, you should now have a more intuitive understanding of trends and cycles. Now, let’s take a closer look at what exactly defines a trend and a cycle.

1. What Are Trends and Cycles?

To understand any market, it is essential to distinguish between the two key concepts of “trend” and “cycle.” The crypto market is no exception.

• Trend: A trend represents the long-term direction of development, a powerful and enduring force. It reflects the fundamental and core trajectory of an asset, much like a mighty river that, once set in motion, is difficult to reverse.
• Cycle: A cycle refers to the short-term fluctuations that occur within a trend, representing periodic movements around the trend line.

Simply put, cycles are within trends. However, simple inclusion is not enough to express the complex relationship between them. If “trend” is compared to the trunk of a tree, and “cycle” is like the rings on the trunk.

Just like the trunk of a tree determines how tall it can grow and in which direction, the growth of a tree is not always smooth. It is influenced by various factors such as seasons, climate, and soil fertility, which leave “growth rings” on the trunk.

Applying this analogy to the Bitcoin market.

• Bitcoin’s long-term trend is shaped by macro factors such as technological innovation, global adoption, institutional entry, and policy evolution. These determine whether Bitcoin’s price will rise or fall in the long run. Once this trend is established, it is like a mighty river flowing toward the sea—no matter how winding the path, its ultimate direction remains unchanged.
• Bitcoin’s short-term cycles, on the other hand, are influenced by short-term factors such as market sentiment, macroeconomics, unexpected events, and capital flows. These are like waves in the river—though they may be turbulent and dramatic, they are ultimately just temporary fluctuations within the broader trend. The alternation between bull and bear markets, as well as short-term price movements, all fall within the scope of cycles.

However, many times, we struggle to distinguish between trends and cycles. Why is that?

2. Why Is It Difficult To Distinguish Between “Trends And Cycles”?

The reason is simple, yet deeply rooted in human nature and the complexity of the market.

The human brain is naturally more sensitive to “changes,” especially short-term and drastic ones. Imagine standing in a forest—what catches your eye first is the rustling leaves in the wind or the squirrel leaping between branches, not the towering presence of a century-old tree. Similarly, in the “digital forest” of cryptocurrencies, our brains are more easily drawn to daily price fluctuations, deceived by the short-term “waves,” while overlooking the long-term “river”—the overarching trend.

This is especially true in the Bitcoin market, where volatility is like a “storm in the digital ocean.” Price swings of 10% or even 20% within a single day are commonplace. Under such extreme fluctuations, an investor’s mind is like a small boat caught in raging waves, constantly battered by immediate price movements, leaving little room to focus on the vast ocean currents that shape the bigger picture.

Moreover, human nature inherently dislikes losses and tends to seek benefits while avoiding harm. When prices drop and account balances shrink, the instinct of “loss aversion” makes us extremely anxious, eager to “cut losses” and exit as soon as possible, leaving no room to consider the so-called “long-term trend.” On the other hand, when prices surge, the desire for “greed” drives us to enter the market due to FOMO (Fear of Missing Out), afraid of missing the chance to “get rich.” In such moments, we rarely stop to think calmly—Is this truly the power of a trend, or just the pulse of a market cycle? Even more perplexing is that Bitcoin’s cyclical fluctuations often carry a strong element of deception. They frequently “change faces,” disguising themselves as “trend reversals,” making it difficult to distinguish between real and fake signals and to see the truth behind the market movements. Adding to the complexity, the Bitcoin market is filled with all sorts of “noise”—information that acts like a “fog,” disrupting our judgment and making it harder to capture the true “signal,” which is the guidance of long-term trends. Worse still, much of this “noise” is deliberately manufactured. Market “whales” or “institutions” intentionally release such “smoke bombs” to mislead retail investors and serve their own hidden agendas. For example, during market downturns, they spread various FUD (Fear, Uncertainty, Doubt) narratives to create panic and trick retail investors into selling at low prices. Conversely, when the market is rising, they release optimistic news to foster excitement, luring retail traders into buying at the top. Therefore, it is understandable that sometimes we struggle to distinguish whether a current decline is merely a “cyclical correction” or a “trend reversal.” So, what exactly is Bitcoin’s current state?

A cyclical correction.

However, this answer carries an important underlying assumption—that Bitcoin’s long-term upward trend remains intact. But is that really the case? This may be the biggest question in your mind. That’s why we must first clarify this issue—because only when you understand where the “ship” is heading can you decide whether it’s worth boarding.

3. Why Has Bitcoin’s Upward Trend Not Changed?

The answer lies within the grand, enduring forces that form the foundation of Bitcoin’s long-term trend. Even amidst the fog of short-term market corrections, these fundamental pillars remain rock solid, shining as guiding beacons for the trend’s direction.

3.1 Global Adoption: The “No-Man’s Land” of 96% Signals Vast Growth Potential

By 2025, only 4% of the world’s population will own Bitcoin. At first glance, this figure may seem disappointing, but from another perspective, it reveals incredible growth potential! Imagine a massive market with billions of people, where only 4% has been developed, leaving 96% of the “no-man’s land” still waiting to be explored and cultivated. Isn’t this an exciting “blue ocean” market?

A research report by River also confirms this: Bitcoin has achieved less than 4% of its maximum adoption potential. This means Bitcoin’s global adoption is still in its “infancy,” with a long road ahead and vast room for growth.

It is especially worth noting that developing countries and regions will be the main drivers of Bitcoin adoption growth in the future. The report shows that North America currently has the highest Bitcoin adoption rate, while Africa’s adoption rate is only 1.6%. This highlights the fact that Bitcoin still has immense potential for adoption in economically underdeveloped regions.

So, what does this global adoption rate of just over 3% actually mean? River’s report provides an analogy, as shown in the image below.

Such a low adoption rate is equivalent to the internet in 1990, online banking in 1996, and social media in 2005. In other words, this is an era full of opportunities. Even if you haven’t boarded yet, it’s not too late. Taobao wasn’t the first to do e-commerce, Google wasn’t the first to do search, and Netflix wasn’t the first to do online video.

Everything is just beginning. This 96% “no man’s land” will be Bitcoin’s most solid “demographic dividend” for its long-term upward trend!

3.2 The Three Pillars: Institutional Entry + Clear Regulations + National Reserves

Bitcoin, once dismissed by traditional financial institutions, has now become a “hot cake” that they are eager to chase.

Standard Chartered predicts that Bitcoin will reach $500,000 during Trump’s term, explicitly stating that “growth in institutional adoption” is one of the key driving factors. Geoffrey Kendrick, Head of Digital Asset Research at Standard Chartered, believes that institutional participation will not only reduce volatility in the crypto market but also enhance its security. Moreover, Standard Chartered is the only institution that has accurately predicted Bitcoin’s current bottom range of $69,000 to $76,500.

Another driving factor, according to Standard Chartered, is the establishment of a clearer regulatory framework in the U.S. The Trump administration has not only set up a “Strategic Bitcoin Reserve” but is also actively promoting stablecoin legislation. U.S. Representative Bryan Steil has publicly stated that the U.S. has significant legislative opportunities in blockchain technology, Web3, and cryptocurrencies. Steil currently serves as the chairman of the House Subcommittee on Digital Assets, Financial Technology, and Artificial Intelligence.

A research report from CoinShares also points out that establishing a strategic Bitcoin reserve in the U.S. will have a more profound long-term impact on Bitcoin adoption than the launch of ETFs. The current market has severely underestimated the value of a U.S. strategic Bitcoin reserve, as it remains focused on short-term liquidity. For a more detailed analysis, you may want to read Digital Fort Knox: The White House’s Plot to Lock Up 190,000 Bitcoins.

In Europe, banks like DekaBank have begun supporting cryptocurrency trading, while Boerse Stuttgart Digital is actively promoting institutional-level adoption of cryptocurrencies. All of this indicates that institutional capital is flowing into the Bitcoin market at an accelerated pace, with traditional financial giants “rushing to enter.”

As regulatory policies become clearer, the share of Bitcoin held by institutions and nation-states will continue to grow, becoming the dominant force driving Bitcoin’s long-term price appreciation.

3.3 Macro Trends Turning Positive: PMI and M2 Indicate a “Positive Reversal”

In the short term, the Trump administration’s tariff policies and the strengthening of the U.S. Dollar Index have created some headwinds for the Bitcoin market. However, from a broader economic and policy perspective, Bitcoin’s long-term upward trend remains strongly supported.

The U.S. Manufacturing PMI has been in expansion mode (above 50) for two consecutive months, signaling a “positive reversal” in the business cycle. Real Vision founder Raoul Pal pointed out that PMI leads the economy by about a month—and not just the economy, but all asset classes. He believes that as the business cycle continues to rise, Bitcoin is likely to peak by late 2025 or early 2026.

S&P Global Market Intelligence’s research supports Pal’s view, as shown in the chart below. You’ll notice that whenever the PMI on the right side exceeds 50, GDP experiences varying degrees of growth. The study suggests that PMI data has predicted “every turning point in returns over the past 14 years.”

Another key indicator worth noting—the global M2 money supply—is also showing a “sharp increase” trend. Research from Real Vision indicates that Bitcoin’s price typically reflects changes in global M2 within approximately 10 weeks.

Analyst Colin Talks Crypto has even conducted data analysis to precisely calculate the “46-day and 72-day lag” in the impact of global M2 changes on Bitcoin’s price. Lyn Alden also pointed out that “Bitcoin moves in the same direction as global liquidity 83% of the time over any given 12-month period, making it a strong barometer of liquidity conditions.” This means that an improvement in global macro liquidity will provide a strong “boost” for Bitcoin’s price increase.

3.4 Summary: The Three Pillars of Bitcoin’s Long-Term Trend

Bitcoin’s long-term upward trend remains unchanged, supported by three irreversible macro forces:

• 96% of the market remains untapped: Currently, only 4% of the global population holds Bitcoin, with adoption rates in developing countries below 2%. Its penetration is comparable to the internet in the 1990s, offering growth potential far beyond short-term market fluctuations.
• Institutional and national strategic adoption: Standard Chartered predicts that Bitcoin could reach $500,000 during Trump’s term. The U.S. is establishing a “Strategic Bitcoin Reserve” and accelerating stablecoin legislation, while European banks like DekaBank have opened cryptocurrency trading. This creates a triple push from “institutions + regulation + sovereign reserves.”
• Macro cycle resonance: The U.S. PMI’s continued expansion signals a business cycle reversal. Global M2 growth has a 46-72 day lagged correlation with Bitcoin prices, and liquidity easing aligns with Bitcoin’s “digital gold” properties for long-term synergy.

So, is the $77,000 pullback just a temporary wave in the cycle, while the broader trend keeps surging forward? And is $77,000 the bottom—making now the right time to enter?

If you agree with the trend analysis above, the answer is self-evident. While you may not buy at the absolute bottom, you also won’t be buying at the peak. The only thing you need to control is your own desire—don’t over-leverage.

Conclusion: Befriend Time, Dance with the Trend

History does not repeat itself, but it often rhymes. When gold flowed from the Americas to Europe, it fueled the wealth myth of the Age of Exploration. When the internet moved from laboratories into households, it reshaped the way human civilization connects. Today, we stand at the forefront of the digital asset revolution, witnessing Bitcoin’s epic leap from mere code to a global value carrier.

When 96% of the world’s population has yet to own Bitcoin, when sovereign funds begin incorporating crypto assets into their balance sheets, and when blockchain technology becomes a new battleground in global competition—this speeding “digital ark” has only just left the shipyard.

The secret to dancing with the trend is not predicting the shape of the waves but understanding the rhythm of the tides. Those who held onto Amazon during the dot-com crash, those who heavily invested in Apple in the early days of mobile internet—they all grasped one truth: trends are never smooth straight lines but upward spirals shaped by countless cycles of fluctuation. Just like Bitcoin’s $77,000 volatility today, it is merely a fleeting chord in the grand symphony of crypto civilization, with the main melody continually ascending toward the trust stronghold built by hash power.

True dancers do not need a spotlight to illuminate the entire path. When 96% of spectators are still watching from the sidelines and sovereign funds begin adjusting their steps, the wise have already marked their notes on the blockchain’s score. Perhaps they will misstep, perhaps they will stumble briefly, but as long as they stand on the tectonic plate of technological revolution, they will witness the reformation of the financial continent.

The trend is the ocean, the cycle is the vessel. Fools measure the height of the waves; the wise adjust the angle of their sails. The trend dictates the overall direction of the market, while cyclical fluctuations are just short-term undulations along that path. As the dusk of the fiat system meets the dawn of the crypto economy, instead of chasing shadows in the labyrinth of candlestick charts, one should leap into the torrent of digital civilization and board the ark lifted by the tides of the era.

Every pullback at this moment is a ticket that history reserves for the awakened.

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