Complete Gate Post tasks to upgrade your rank

Credit Ranking

[//]:content-type-MARKDOWN-DONOT-DELETE
![](https://gimg2.gateimg.com/image/article/1745293390btcbtc.png)

With [Bitcoin price](/price/bitcoin-btc) In April 2025, breaking through $87,000, the market once again sparked a debate about whether it is the right time to get on board. Faced with volatile market and complex macro environment, investors need to make rational judgments based on multi-dimensional data such as fund flows, market sentiment, and technical indicators. This article starts with recent key data to provide reference for investors with different strategies.

## ETF fund movements: long-term confidence remains unchanged, short-term fluctuations are controllable

Despite a small outflow of $13 million from the <a href="/ja/price/bitcoin-btc" target="_blank" class="blog_inner_link">Bitcoin</a> spot ETF last week (2025.04.14-04.20), the scale of this can be almost negligible. Since February this year, the trend of continuous net outflow of ETF funds has not been reversed. It is worth noting that the current correlation between ETF fund flows and price fluctuations is weakening, and the market is gradually entering a stock game stage. For ordinary investors, the stability of ETFs can serve as an anchor for long-term confidence, but short-term trading still needs to be vigilant against the volatility risks caused by macro policies.

## Price oscillation range: technical signals after breaking through the previous high

Over the past week, the price of Bitcoin has fluctuated narrowly in the range of $82,000 to $86,000, until this morning when it broke through $87,000 and rose above the upper boundary of the box. From a technical perspective, if the price can hold above $87,000 and accompanied by increased trading volume, it may open up the potential to test the $90,000 level upwards; conversely, if the retracement confirmation fails, it may return to the oscillation channel. The current uncertainty in macroeconomic policies (such as the Fed's interest rate path, geopolitical situations) remains a core factor constraining the unilateral development of the market. For short-term investors, it is important to pay attention to the effectiveness of the breakout; long-term holders can ignore short-term fluctuations and focus on the cyclical trend.

## Market Sentiment Index: Contrarian Opportunities in the Panic Phase

Over the past week, the Bitcoin greed and fear index has continued to hover around 30, indicating that market sentiment is still in the fear stage. Historical data shows that when the index is below 40, it often corresponds to the medium to long-term bottom area. For example, at the beginning of 2023, the index dropped to 25, and Bitcoin subsequently rose by over 200% in the following six months. The current market's cautious sentiment is mainly due to policy disturbances rather than deteriorating fundamentals. For value investors, the fear stage is precisely the window to gradually build positions, but position control is needed to deal with potential fluctuations.

## AHR999 Index: A Guide to Long-Term Investing for Visionaries

According to the latest data today, the Bitcoin AHR999 index is 0.77, which is in the 'suitable for dollar-cost averaging' range (0.45-1.2). This index evaluates the deviation of <a href="/ja/price/bitcoin-btc" target="_blank" class="blog_inner_link">Bitcoin price</a> from the long-term trend line, and a value below 1 indicates that the price is relatively undervalued. Historical data shows that when the AHR999 is in the range of 0.45-1.2 and dollar-cost averaging is continued, the probability of profit holding for more than 3 years exceeds 90%. For investors who cannot accurately time the market, the current index level provides data support for staggered purchases, but strict investment discipline should be established to avoid emotional operations.

In the current market, investors can choose different strategies according to their risk preferences: Conservative: wait for a breakthrough of $90,000 and get on board after stabilizing on the right side; Steady: refer to the AHR999 index for weekly/monthly dollar-cost averaging to smooth out the holding cost; Aggressive: use panic sentiment to set up swing positions near the lower edge of the range (around $82,000). Regardless of the strategy, it is necessary to set a clear stop-loss level and reserve at least 30% cash to deal with black swan events.

## BTC Future Outlook

Bitcoin is currently in a game period between macro policies and market sentiment. Although the short-term direction is unclear, the underlying logic for long-term improvement (halving cycle, institutional allocation increase, global payment network upgrade) has not fundamentally changed. For investors who believe in the future of cryptocurrency, a volatile market may be a gift of time.

<div class="blog-details-info">
<div>Author: **Icing**, Gate.io Researcher
<div class="info-tips">\*This article represents only the views of the researcher and does not constitute any investment suggestions. Investment involves risks and users need to make careful decisions.
<div>\*Gate.io reserves all rights to this article. Reposting of the article will be permitted provided Gate.io is referenced. In all cases, legal action will be taken due to copyright infringement.
</div>

简体中文

English

Tiếng Việt

Español

Русский язык

Français

ภาษาไทย

Indonesia

Deutsch

عربي

Português (Portugal]

Português (Brasil]

繁體中文

Українська

福利中心

web3 Airdrop

launchpool

小红花-Exchange-Startup

交易-盘前交易

launchpad

candy_drop

打新

小红花-Learn & Explore-博客

小红花-Learn & Explore-快讯

币圈-币圈-未来事件

小红花-Learn & Explore-聊天室

小红花-Learn & Explore-直播

小红花-Learn & Explore-动态

币圈

Gate OTC

芝麻金融-更多-财富管理

机构-APIs

机构-大宗交易服务

机构-经纪商项目

全球做市商计划

机构-托管和资产管理

机构借贷

机构-做市商项目

小红花-Promotions-机构和VIP服务

量化基金

机构-基础架构

机构-交易

机构-金融

结构化产品

机构-主页

衍生品-统一账户

芝麻金融-更多-抵押借币

vip服务

机构

策略跟单

现货跟单

交易-合约跟单

跟单

量化策略-探索

量化策略-进阶

量化策略-基础

交易-机器人广场

创建机器人

探索机器人

杠杆网格

无限网格

期现套利

组合指标策略

智能调仓

现货马丁格尔

合约网格

现货网格

交易机器人

芝麻金融-更多-ETH2.0挖矿

芝麻金融-更多-法币理财

链上赚币

芝麻金融-理财-双币宝

芝麻金融-理财-定期理财(屯币)

芝麻金融-理财-结构性理财

芝麻金融-理财-理财宝

芝麻金融-理财-余币宝

GT挖矿

芝麻金融-更多

芝麻金融-理财

赚币

模拟交易

衍生品-期权

衍生品-交割合约

衍生品-永续合约

合约入门

合约活动

衍生品

交易-杠杆ETF

交易-杠杆交易

交易-闪兑

交易-现货交易

交易-创新交易

交易-交易工具

交易-交易类型

交易

行情

买币-gateCard

卖币

买币-快捷交易

买币

买币-paywith

法币定投

小红花-推广

新手指南

活动中心

小红花-Learn & Explore-学院

小红花-Exchange-最新公告

小红花-Exchange-帮助中心

gate商店

小红花-Promotions-邀请计划

小红花-promotions-代理商

cextg小程序

储备金

合作伙伴

小红花

web3

Should I Buy Bitcoin Now?