XRP defies the trend and makes a comeback, with a market cap surpassing BNB to rank in the top three. This is especially remarkable in a bear market environment. Even more interesting is that XRP spot ETF continues to maintain net inflows—while most funds are on the sidelines, there is a steady stream of capital entering here. The underlying logic is intriguing. The more noteworthy data has arrived: the XRP balance on exchanges has fallen to 1.6 billion coins, hitting an 8-year low. What does this indicate? Chips are consolidating, and institutions and large investors are accumulating. From the past silence to today’s upward momentum, what is the driving force behind XRP’s rally? Is it institutions finishing their ambush? Or is the market re-recognizing its value? Three numbers point in one direction—chips are consolidating, outflows are slowing down, and the buying power is quietly accumulating.

Ripple recently completed the XRP release plan for January, unlocking a total of 700 million XRP. This number seems large, but it requires calm analysis. Simply put, Ripple has a fixed monthly issuance mechanism. Every month, a certain amount of XRP is regularly released, and the January quota was 700 million. The key point is—these tokens do not directly flow into the secondary market but are instead returned to the escrow wallet for continued locking. In other words, although the release volume looks significant, the actual circulating supply that can impact the market is limited. However, there are two aspects worth noting. One is that the Ripple team might retain a portion of these unlocked tokens for company operations or ecosystem development, so the actual selling pressure is even smaller. The other is the pending SEC lawsuit. This legal dispute is the real variable affecting XRP price fluctuations—if the regulatory outcome is unfavorable, the release volume becomes a secondary concern. An intuitive analogy is: XRP is like limited resources periodically unlocked in a game. Ripple opens a treasure chest each month to release items, but these items go directly into a frozen storage. Market participants can only trade with external reserves, and the real turning point depends on when the official launches new cross-border payment collaborations or technological breakthroughs. Therefore, instead of obsessing over the 7 billion release volume, it’s better to focus on Ripple’s actual application deployment. That is the long-term factor determining XRP’s value.

Prices At the Start of Alt-Season for $XRP: 2017: ~$0.0061 before a >44,000% bull run to $2.77+ 2021: ~$0.20 before a near 1,000% increase to $1.96+ 2026: ~$2.00 We are targeting a >600% run to $15+, modestly.