El cambio de política impacta en el mercado de predicciones, los operadores sufren pérdidas enormes; sin embargo, el mercado de criptomonedas rebota

【币界】Trump policy shift causes market to explode. This week, the president canceled plans to impose tariffs on eight European countries and also announced the possibility of excluding Greenland from military action. This shift directly impacted traders betting on a strong policy push — the probability of the U.S. annexing Greenland before 2027 dropped sharply from high levels to 11%.

A trader’s experience was particularly painful: originally bet $105,000 on “yes,” but a sudden reversal led to a loss of $46,000. This situation actually reflects a common market pattern — industry insiders call it the “TACO trading” model. Simply put, Trump makes tough statements → the market follows suit with bets → policy suddenly shifts → traders pay the price. This cycle repeats again and again.

Interestingly, while the prediction market is experiencing turbulence, the cryptocurrency market is quietly rebounding. The total industry market cap increased by 1.5%, and all top ten cryptocurrencies are in the green. The dislocation between policy risk and crypto asset trends also, to some extent, illustrates the market’s complexity.