Chubby Penguin and Bored Ape suddenly skyrocket! Behind it is the NFT "Overhype" crisis: trading volume and user numbers halved

The NFT market has recently experienced a rebound, led by Bored Apes and Pudgy Penguins, driving up floor prices significantly. However, on-chain data shows that both total trading volume and active user numbers have been “cut in half,” indicating that funds are highly concentrated in a few blue-chip projects.

Non-fungible tokens (NFTs) have recently surged in popularity, and for investors closely watching market prices, it seems like the market has returned to a springtime of prosperity. However, examining on-chain transaction data suggests that this rebound is more like “a small amount of capital pushing prices higher,” rather than a genuine market-wide recovery.

This rally is led by Bored Ape Yacht Club (BAYC) and Pudgy Penguins, two major blue-chip NFT projects, whose floor prices have recorded double-digit increases over the past few weeks, with token prices rising accordingly. Nonetheless, despite the lively appearance of this “great counterattack,” actual buying activity remains scarce.

For example, Pudgy Penguins’ floor price has now surpassed 5 ETH, with a weekly increase of over 20%; over the past 7 days, approximately 201 transactions have been completed, with a trading volume approaching 1,000 ETH. On the other hand, Bored Ape’s floor price has surged 81% over the past 30 days, rebounding strongly from previous lows.

Image source: “BlockTalk”

In the NFT market, the floor price is a key indicator that investors closely monitor, representing the lowest listed price currently available. For example, if the cheapest Pudgy Penguins NFT listed on the market is priced at 5.38 ETH, that is the floor price for the series. Usually, an increase in the floor price indicates that buyers are willing to pay more to enter; conversely, a decline suggests holders are eager to sell off quickly to cut losses.

Funding pools shrink, player activity “halves”

However, behind the apparent rally led by top projects, the market structure of NFTs reveals underlying concerns: overall participation is shrinking significantly.

According to data analysis platform CryptoSlam, the global NFT monthly sales have plummeted from $304 million in February this year to about $175 million in April; at the same time, total transaction counts and active users have both been “cut in half.”

Meanwhile, the average transaction price of NFTs has doubled, rising from $30.6 in March to $67.38 in April. These seemingly contradictory data points actually reflect the same phenomenon: the market has not experienced a broad-based return of buying interest, but rather a shrinking capital pool that is highly concentrated in a few high-priced blue-chip NFTs.

Buyers’ “gold content” varies greatly; retail investors remain trapped in “bag-holding”

Even top-tier blue-chip NFT projects show different buyer structures. Pudgy Penguins, while increasing in price, still maintains relatively high trading activity, indicating a healthy level of market engagement. In contrast, veteran projects like CryptoPunks, although with weekly trading volumes similar to Pudgy Penguins, have far fewer transactions, meaning that just a few large trades can easily influence the price.

From a broader market signal perspective, the situation remains mixed. CryptoSlam data indicates that about 50% of current NFT trading volume involves “wash trading” (also known as fake volume). Additionally, overall trading profits are still negative, which means that despite recent price rebounds, most players are still “trapped” in their positions.

In summary, the current NFT market appears more like “building a bottom and stabilizing” rather than “explosive expansion.” Prices are rising, but participation is waning, with all the heat and capital flowing into just a few top projects.

More importantly, over the past month, Ethereum has surged about 18%, and Bitcoin has also posted similar gains. In other words, this seemingly NFT-specific rally is largely benefiting from the increased risk appetite in the overall crypto market, which has driven prices higher across the board. The top-tier NFTs priced in ETH are just riding the wave of hot money, following the trend upward.

• This article is reprinted with permission from: “BlockTalk”
• Original title: “Pudgy Penguins, Bored Apes Surge: NFT Market Faces ‘Fake Boom’ Crisis, Trading Volume and User Numbers Halved”
• Original author: Block Sister MEL