Editor’s note: The author reviews the period from the outbreak of World War II in 1939 to the 2024 re-election of Donald Trump, during which the U.S.-led global economy experienced a massive super bull market fueled by one-time events such as America’s rise as a superpower after WWII, the entry of women and minorities into the labor force, and the victory in the Cold War. However, the author believes that this grand feast has come to an end due to factors like deglobalization, an irreversibly shrinking labor force, and the inability to lower interest rates further. Going forward, we will face financial asset liquidations, capital controls, and fiscal repression. Traditional markets are unlikely to relive their glory days. Instead, gold and Bitcoin — non-traditional assets that are difficult for governments to control — will become safe havens. In particular, Bitcoin, with its digital advantages, could rise rapidly in small and medium-sized countries and potentially reach a million-dollar valuation. But before that, it will first have to endure a bear market test.

Below is the original content (lightly adapted for ease of reading and understanding):

TL;DR

• Globalization is over. Your financial assets have already been liquidated.
• Non-traditional assets are your salvation.
• Bitcoin could reach $1 million.

From the outbreak of World War II (1939) to Trump’s second election victory (2024), we experienced an unprecedented super bull market.

This sustained surge created generation after generation of passive investors who grew accustomed to the belief that “the market will never fail” and that “markets only go up.” However, I believe that this feast has ended, and many people are about to face a reckoning.

How did we get here?

The super bull market from 1939 to 2024 was not accidental. It was driven by a series of structural transformations that reshaped the global economy — with the United States always at the center.

The Rise of a Global Superpower after World War II

World War II catapulted the United States from a medium-sized power to the undisputed leader of the “free world.” By 1945, the U.S. was producing more than half of the world’s industrial output, controlled one-third of global exports, and held roughly two-thirds of the world’s gold reserves. This economic dominance laid the foundation for decades of growth.

Unlike the isolationist America after World War I, post-World War II America eagerly embraced its role as a global leader, helped establish the United Nations, and implemented the “Marshall Plan,” injecting over $13 billion into Western Europe. This wasn’t just altruistic aid — by investing in post-war reconstruction, the U.S. created new markets for its products and established cultural and economic dominance.

Labor Force Expansion: The Entry of Women and Minorities

During World War II, approximately 6.7 million women entered the workforce, boosting female labor force participation by nearly 50% in just a few years. Although many women left the workforce after the war, this large-scale mobilization permanently changed societal attitudes toward women’s employment.

By 1950, the large-scale employment trend of married women became even more pronounced, with female labor force participation rates rising by an unprecedented 10 percentage points across most age groups. This was not just a wartime anomaly but the starting point of a fundamental shift in the American economic model. “Marriage bans” (policies that prohibited married women from working) were abolished, part-time jobs became more prevalent, advancements in household technology reduced domestic labor burdens, and higher education levels all contributed to women transitioning from temporary workers to long-term participants in the economic system.

A similar trend occurred among minority groups, who gradually gained greater economic opportunities. This expansion of the labor force effectively boosted the United States’ productive capacity, supporting decades of sustained economic growth.

The Cold War Victory and the Wave of Globalization

The Cold War defined America’s political and economic role in the post-WWII era. By 1989, the United States had formed military alliances with 50 countries and stationed 1.5 million troops across 117 nations worldwide. This wasn’t just about military security — it was about establishing American economic influence on a global scale.

After the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991, the United States emerged as the world’s sole superpower, entering an era many viewed as a unipolar world. This was not only an ideological victory but also the opening of global markets, with the U.S. taking a dominant role in shaping global trade patterns.

From the 1990s to the early 21st century, American companies expanded aggressively into emerging markets. This was not a natural evolution but rather the result of long-term policy decisions. For example, in countries where the CIA had intervened during the Cold War, U.S. imports saw significant increases, especially in industries where the U.S. did not have clear competitive advantages.

The victory of Western capitalism over Eastern communism was not solely due to military or ideological advantages. The Western liberal democratic system proved more adaptable, effectively adjusting its economic structure even after the 1973 oil crisis. The 1979 “Volcker Shock” reshaped America’s global financial hegemony, making global capital markets the new engine of growth for the U.S. in the post-industrial era.

These structural transformations — America’s rise to superpower status after WWII, the inclusion of women and minorities into the labor market, and the victory in the Cold War — collectively fueled an unprecedented bull market in financial assets. However, the core issue is this: these transformations were one-time events that cannot be repeated. You can’t get women back into the labor force at the same scale, and you can’t defeat the Soviet Union again. Now, with both political parties pushing for de-globalization, we are witnessing the removal of the last supports for this long-term growth cycle.

What happens next?

I like Tom, he’s my go-to TradFi Sentiment Indicator in the Crypto community.

Unfortunately, however, everyone is praying for the market to return to its historical norm. The market consensus is: the situation will worsen, then central banks will loosen their policies again, and we can continue making money… but the reality is that these people are walking straight into the slaughterhouse.again, and we can continue to make money… But the reality is: these people are heading to the slaughterhouse.

The nearly century-long bull market was built on a series of events that cannot be repeated (the bull market cannot continue), and some of these factors are even starting to reverse.

• Women will not re-enter the labor market on a large scale: In fact, with figures like Elon Musk and pro-natalist elites pushing for higher birth rates, the female labor force participation rate may actually decline.

• Minority groups will not be absorbed into the labor market in large numbers again: In fact, the Democratic Party’s stance on immigration policy is almost as tough as the Republican Party’s, and this has become a bipartisan consensus.

• Interest rates will not decline again: In fact, every elected leader knows that inflation is their greatest threat to re-election. Therefore, governments will do everything they can to avoid rate cuts and reignite inflation.

• We will not globalize further: In fact, Trump is pushing in the completely opposite direction. And I expect the Democratic Party to replicate this policy in the next election (don’t forget, most of Biden’s policies were directly copied from Trump’s first term).

• We won’t win another world war: In fact, it looks like we may even lose the next one. Either way, I don’t want to test this hypothesis.

My point is simple: All the global macro trends that drove the stock market up over the past century are now reversing. So, where do you think the market will go?

Goblin Town

When an empire falls into decline, it’s really tough — just ask Japan. If you had bought into the Nikkei 225 index at its all-time high in 1989 and held onto it until now, after 36 years, your return would be about -5%. This is the typical “buy and hold, suffering endlessly” scenario. I believe we are walking down the same path.

This passage conveys the idea that when an economy or market enters a period of decline, investors can face long periods of no returns or even losses, and suggests that the global economy may be heading toward a similar stagnation or decline.

Worse still, you should prepare for the upcoming capital controls and financial repression policies. Just because the market isn’t going up doesn’t mean the government will accept reality. When traditional monetary policies fail, governments will turn to more direct financial control measures.

Upcoming Capital Controls

Financial repression refers to policies that result in savers earning returns below inflation levels, so that banks can provide cheap loans to businesses and governments, thereby easing the pressure of debt repayment. This strategy is especially effective in helping governments manage domestic currency debt. The term was first used in 1973 by Stanford economists to criticize the economic growth-suppressing policies of emerging markets, but nowadays, these strategies are increasingly appearing in developed economies, such as the United States.

This may sound like a joke, but you should seriously consider why Monero’s (XMR) candlestick chart looks so perfect right now.

As the U.S. debt burden exceeds 120% of GDP, the possibility of repaying debt through traditional means is rapidly diminishing. And the “playbook” for financial repression has already begun to be implemented or tested, including:

• Direct or indirect limits on government debt and deposit interest rates

• Government control of financial institutions and the establishment of competitive barriers

• High reserve requirements

• Creating a closed domestic debt market, forcing institutions to buy government bonds

• Capital controls, restricting the cross-border flow of assets

This is not a theoretical assumption, but a reality. Since 2010, the U.S. Federal Funds Rate has been below the inflation rate for over 80% of the time, effectively transferring wealth from savers to borrowers (including the government).

Your Retirement Account: The Next Target of the Government

If the government can no longer rely on printing money to buy bonds and lower interest rates to avoid a debt crisis, they will set their sights on your retirement accounts. I can easily imagine a future where tax-advantaged accounts like 401(k)s are forced to hold more and more “safe and reliable” government bonds. The government won’t need to print money anymore; they will simply raid existing funds in the system.

This is exactly the script we’ve seen unfold in recent years:

• Freezing Assets: In April 2024, Biden signed a law authorizing the government to seize Russian reserves in the U.S., setting a precedent for the government to freeze foreign exchange reserves at any time. In the future, this practice may not be limited to geopolitical adversaries.

• Canada’s Freedom Convoy Protest: The government froze around 280 bank accounts without court approval. Financial officials admitted that this was not only to cut off the flow of funds but also to “deter” protestors and ensure they “make the decision to leave.” When asked how freezing accounts would affect innocent families, the government’s response was, “They just need to leave.”

Gold Seizure and Surveillance

It is not surprising, as U.S. history is filled with similar actions:

In 1933, President Franklin D. Roosevelt issued Executive Order 6102, requiring citizens to surrender their gold or face imprisonment. While enforcement was limited, the Supreme Court supported the government’s right to seize gold. This was not a “voluntary buyback program” but a “forced wealth expropriation,” packaged as a “fair market price” transaction.

The government’s surveillance powers grew rapidly after 9/11. The FISA Amendments Act gave the NSA almost unlimited powers to monitor international communications of U.S. citizens.

The Patriot Act allowed the government to collect all Americans’ phone records daily. Section 215 even allowed the government to collect your reading records, study materials, purchase history, medical records, and personal financial information without any reasonable suspicion.

The issue is not “will financial repression arrive,” but “how severe will it be.” As the economic pressures of de-globalization intensify, government control over capital will only become more direct and severe.

Gold & Bitcoin

The gold monthly chart since 1970 is currently the strongest K-line chart in the world.

By process of elimination, the most suitable financial asset for purchase has already become obvious—you need an asset that has no historical correlation with the market, is difficult for the government to seize, and is not controlled by Western governments. I can think of two, one of which has increased its market value by $6 trillion in the past 12 months. This is the clearest bull market signal.

Global Gold Reserve Race

Countries like China, Russia, and India are rapidly increasing their gold reserves to cope with the changing global economic landscape:

• China: In January 2025, China increased its gold holdings by 5 tons in a single month, continuing net purchases for three consecutive months, bringing its total holdings to 2,285 tons.

• Russia: Holding 2,335.85 tons of gold, Russia has become the fifth-largest gold reserve country in the world.

• India: Ranked eighth globally, holding 853.63 tons and continuing to increase its holdings.

This is not a random action, but rather a strategic layout. After the G7 froze Russia’s foreign exchange reserves, central banks around the world took note of this. A survey of 57 central banks showed that 96% of respondents viewed gold’s credibility as a safe-haven asset as a motivation to continue investing. When assets denominated in dollars can be wiped out and frozen with a single stroke, physical gold stored within one’s own country becomes extremely attractive.

In 2024 alone, Turkey increased its gold reserves by 74.79 tons, a growth of 13.85%. Poland’s gold reserves increased by 89.54 tons, a rise of nearly 25%. Even a small country like Uzbekistan added 8 tons of gold in January 2025, bringing its total gold holdings to 391 tons, which accounts for 82% of its foreign exchange reserves. This is not a coincidence but a coordinated effort aimed at freeing themselves from a financial system that could be weaponized.

Governments trust gold the most because they have established systems to use gold for reserves and trade settlements. The gold holdings of BRICS central banks account for more than 20% of the global central bank gold reserves. As the governor of Kazakhstan’s central bank stated in January 2025, they are transitioning toward “currency neutrality in gold purchases,” with the goal of increasing international reserves and “protecting the economy from external shocks.”

Bitcoin

This gold-dominated era may last for months or even years, but eventually, its limitations will become apparent. Many small and medium-sized countries do not have the banking systems or naval capabilities to manage the global logistics of gold, and these countries may become the first adopters of Bitcoin as a replacement for gold.

• El Salvador: In 2021, it became the first country to adopt Bitcoin as legal tender. By 2025, its Bitcoin reserves had grown to over $550 million.

• Bhutan: Using hydroelectric power to mine, its Bitcoin reserves exceeded $1 billion, accounting for one-third of the country’s GDP.

As the world becomes more chaotic, countries are less likely to entrust their gold reserves to allies. The risk of confiscation is too great, as demonstrated by Venezuela’s failed attempt to recover gold from the Bank of England. For smaller countries, Bitcoin offers an appealing alternative—it can be stored without physical vaults, transferred without ships, and protected without armies.

This transition period will usher in the next phase of Bitcoin adoption, but patience is required. The world will not change overnight, and neither will the monetary system. By 2025, we have already seen the beginning of this shift, with increasing Bitcoin adoption in countries like Argentina, Nigeria, and Vietnam, as their populations seek protection against inflation and financial instability.

The path forward is clear: first gold, then Bitcoin. As more countries recognize the limitations of physical gold in an increasingly digital and fragmented world, the proposal for Bitcoin as digital gold becomes more compelling. The question is not whether this transition will happen, but when— and which countries will lead the way.

A $1 million Bitcoin is coming, but you must be patient. Prepare yourself first for a tough bear market.

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